The Future of BioSciences: Four Scenarios for 2020 and Their Implications for Human Healthcare

Research-Technology Management, Jan-Feb, 2007

The Future of BioSciences: Four Scenarios for 2020 and Their Implications for Human Healthcare; Paul J. H. Schoemaker and Michael S. Tomczyk (Eds.); Wharton School Mack Center for Technological Innovation, Philadelphia, PA; 2006; 132 pp., $2,700.00 from www.thinkdsi.com/ biosciences

This report by Decision Strategies International and the Mack Center for Technological Innovation at the Wharton School aims to help bioscience companies "prepare for the future, challenge current thinking and find ways to profit from uncertainty." With contributions from more than 50 bioscience industry leaders, it includes four scenarios that describe the commercialization potential of emerging bioscience technologies from now until 2020 and beyond:

1. In the "Where's the Beef" scenario, medical science is unable to cure many common diseases despite strong public pressure and support. Biomedicine and gene therapy in particular have not fulfilled their early promise despite decades of research.

2. "Science Held Hostage" points out the occurrence of scientific breakthroughs, but public opposition and ever-increasing legal barriers prevent their commercialization. Moral or ethical concerns, especially in human gene manipulation, stall new products.

3. Advances take a long time and sick people across the globe lose hope that future therapies can save them, according to "Bio Gridlock." There's great frustration at the lack of results even after decades of increasing research funding.

4. Finally, the "New Age of Medicine" scenario demonstrates the healing powers of vast database libraries that help match patients and treatments in a system of total lifelong patient care and personal monitoring. Increasingly, patients in developing nations gain access to this and sophisticated medical treatments.

How bioscience leaders, policy makers and others react to the challenges ahead will determine which future prevails. To this end, the report concludes by discussing the trends, uncertainties and strategic factors the investigators believe will influence these reactions.