Scanning the Periphery

Research-Technology Management, March-April, 2006

Scanning the Periphery: George S. Day and Paul J. H. Schoemaker; Harvard Business Review, November 2005; pp. 135-148.

This article by two Wharton School professors presents a method for determining where on an organization's "periphery"--that "blurry zone" at the edge of its vision--companies should be looking in order to avoid being blind-sided by unsuspected exogenous changes. Their method is a question-based framework divided into three categories:

Learning from the past:

* What have been our past blind spots?

* What instructive analogies do other industries offer?

* Who in the industry is skilled at picking up weak signals and acting on them?

Evaluating the present:

* What important signals are we rationalizing away?

* What are our mavericks, outliers, complainers, and defectors telling us?

* What are our peripheral customers and competitors really thinking?

Envisioning the future:

* What future surprises could really hurt or help us?

* What emerging technologies could change the game?

* Is there an unthinkable scenario that might disrupt our business?

The article concludes with a self-test that companies can use to assess their need and capability for peripheral vision. The concepts behind it have been expanded in their forthcoming book, Peripheral Vision, described on p. 60, this issue.