Recognition of factors affecting students trust in virtual universities using Delphi Method

American Journal of Applied Sciences, Nov, 2008 by Mohammad Ali Sarlak, Ali Reza Aliahmadi

INTRODUCTION

The emergence of information and communication technologies (ICTs) and their use in training of people has resulted in formation of virtual universities. Most countries with more or less similar goals have acted to establish such universities. Islamic republic of Iran too, as a developing country in Asia has taken such steps. The result of this effort up to time of writing this essay has been designing of ten virtual universities in order to satisfy the educational needs of the great number of people requesting to benefit from higher education in Iran (1). At the present time virtual universities are operating beside the non- virtual universities. The problem that virtual universities confront is low level of student trust to these universities. The current research tries to recognize factors affecting students trust in Virtual Universities using Delphi Method.

DELPHI METHOD

Delphi method (Delphi Technique) is a group decision-making process that involves circulating questionnaires on a specific problem among group members, sharing the questionnaires results with them and then continuing to recirculate and refine individual responds until a consensus regarding the problem is reached. The formal steps followed in the Delphi method are:

Step 1: A problem is identified.

Step 2: Group members are asked to offer solutions to the problem by providing anonymous responses to a carefully designed questionnaire.

Step 3: Responses of all group members compiled and sent out to all group members.

Step 4: Individual group members are asked to generate a new individual solution to the problem after they have studied the individual responses of all other group members compiled in step 3.

Step 5: Steps 3 and 4 are repeated until a consensus problem solution is reached.

The advantage of Delphi method is that ideas can be gathered from group members who are too geographically separated or busy to meet face to face. Its disadvantages are that members are unable to ask questions of one another (2). The following key characteristics of the Delphi method help the participants to focus on the issues at hand and separate Delphi from other methodologies (www.wikapedia.com):

Structuring of information flow: The initial contributions from the experts are collected in the form of answers to questionnaires and their comments to these answers. The panel director controls the interactions among the participants by processing the information and filtering out irrelevant content. This avoids the negative effects of face-to-face panel discussions and solves the usual problems of group dynamics.

Regular feedback: Participants comment on their own forecasts, the responses of others and on the progress of the panel as a whole. At any moment they can revise their earlier statements. While in regular group meetings participants tend to stick to previously stated opinions and often conform too much to group leader, the Delphi method prevents it.

Anonymity of the participants: Usually all participants maintain anonymity. Their identity is not revealed even after the completion of the final report. This stops them from dominating others in the process using their authority or personality, frees them to some extent from their personal biases, minimizes the bandwagon effect or halo effect allows them to freely express their opinions, encourages open critique and admitting errors by revising earlier judgments.

Consensus criterion in delphi method: In this research, Kendall's Coefficient of Concordance was applied to indicate the level of consensus amongst the panel members. Table 1 explains different amounts of this coefficient (3).

Table 1: Interpretation of Kendall's Coefficient Amounts

Kendall's             Interpretation            Assuredness of
Coefficient Amount                            Arrangement Factors

0.1                   Very weak consensus        Not existing
0.3                   Weak consensus             Minimal
0.5                   Medium consensus           Average
0.7                   Strong consensus           High
0.9                   Very strong consensus      Very high

RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

The present research methodology is shown in Fig. 1.

[FIGURE 1 OMITTED]

Research problem: The main problem that Iran's virtual universities now confront is low level of student trust to these universities. The study sought to answer the question:

What are the affecting factors on students trust towards virtual universities?

Delphi panel members selection: Delphi method uses a panel of carefully selected experts who answer a series of questionnaires. The notion is that well-informed individuals, calling on their insights and experience, are better equipped to predict the future than theoretical approaches or extrapolation of trends. In current research 25 experts in area of information technology and virtual universities were selected as Delphi panel members.

Literature review: The following section provides an overview of the results of 11 empirical studies on trust in the electronic and virtual entities ranging from the year 1999 to the year 2003 (4). In Table 2, a brief result of eleven stated studies is shown.