Opec May Have to Maintain Output Levels.

Oil Daily, The, April, 2003 by Karen Matusic

The myriad uncertainties surrounding the Iraq war, coupled with supply shortfalls in Nigeria and Venezuela, could leave Opec with little option but to maintain current output levels -- even though many members predict a supply glut.

Heavyweight Saudi Arabia, which had contemplated trimming back output just a couple weeks ago, now believes it is too soon to turn down the taps. That view seems likely to prevail over private calls by other Opec members for a production cut.

The kingdom believes the loss of Iraqi exports -- official and unofficial levels had been running at over 2 million b/d before the war -- and the disturbances in Nigeria, which robbed the markets of some 800,000 b/d of sweet crude, make it difficult to gauge short-term market requirements....