A bad bet

George W. Bush is a high-stakes gambler. When the going gets tough, he is inclined to up the ante. Whether it is tax cuts, the prescription drug benefit, bringing democracy to the Middle East or sending astronauts to Mars, he reaches for the sky. His endorsement of Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's unilateral peace plan is another such high-risk move, but has he calculated the downside of this big gamble?

Shutting down the Israeli settlements in Gaza and the Israeli withdrawal appear at first glance to be bold gestures for peace. But considered in its entirety, the ...