Would banning firearms reduce murder and suicide? A review of international and some domestic evidence

Harvard Journal of Law & Public Policy, Spring, 2007 by Don B. Kates, Gary Mauser

Table 1: European Gun Ownership and Murder Rates (rates
given are per 100,000 people and in descending order)

Nation        Murder Rate    Rate of Gun Ownership

Russia        20.54 [2002]          4,000
Luxembourg    9.01 [2002]            c. 0
Hungary       2.22 [2003]           2,000
Finland       1.98 [20041           39,000
Sweden        1.87 [2001]           24,000
Poland        1.79 [20031           1,500
France        1.65 [2003]           30,000
Denmark       1.21 [2003]           19,000
Greece        1.12 [2003]           11,000
Switzerland   0.99 [2003]           16,000
Germany       0.93 [2003]           30,000
Norway        0.81 [2001]           36,000
Austria       0.80 [2002]           17,000

Notes: This table covers all the Continental European nations for
which the two data sets given are both available. In every case,
we have given the homicide data for 2003 or the closest year
thereto because that is the year of the publication from which
the gun ownership data are taken. Gun ownership data comes from
GRADUATE INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL STUDIES, SMALL ARMS SURVEY
64 tb1.2.2, 65 tbl.2.3 (2003).

The homicide rate data comes from an annually published report,
CANADIAN CENTRE FOR JUSTICE STATISTICS, HOMICIDE IN CANADA,
JURISTAT, for the years 2001-2004. Each year's report gives
homicide statistics for a dozen or so foreign nations in a
section labeled "Homicide Rates for Selected Countries."
This section of the reports gives no explanation of why it
selects the various nations whose homicide statistics it
covers. Also without explanation, the nations covered differ
from year to year. Thus, for instance, murder statistics for
Germany and Hungary are given in all four of the pamphlets
(2001, 2002, 2003, 2004), for Russia in three years (2001,
2002, and 2004), for France in two years (2001 and 2003),
and for Norway and Sweden in only one year (2001).

Table 2: Murder Rates of European Nations that Ban
Handguns as Compared to Their Neighbors that Allow
Handguns (rates are per 100,000 persons)

Nation          Handgun Policy   Murder Rate      Year

A. Belarus          banned          10.40      late 1990s

[Neighboring countries with gun law and murder rate data available]

Poland             allowed          1.98          2003
Russia              banned          20.54         2002

B. Luxembourg       banned          9.01          2002

[Neighboring countries with gun law and murder rate data available]

Belgium            allowed          1.70       late 1990s
France             allowed          1.65          2003
Germany            allowed          0.93          2003

C. Russia           banned          20.54         2002

[Neighboring countries with gun law and murder rate data available]

Finland            allowed          1.98          2004
Norway             allowed          0.81          2001

Notes: This table covers all the European nations for which the
information given is available. As in Table 1, the homicide rate
data comes from an annually published report, CANADIAN CENTRE FOR
JUSTICE STATISTICS, HOMICIDE IN CANADA, JURISTAT.

Table 3: Eastern Europe Gun Ownership and Murder Rates
(rates given are per 100,000 people and in descending order)

Nation                  Murder Rate            Rate of Gun Ownership

Russia                20.54 * [2002]                   4,000
Moldova               8.13 ** [2000]                   1,000
Slovakia              2.65 ** [2000]                   3,000
Romania               2.50 ** [2000]                    300
Macedonia              2.31 * [2000]                  16,000
Hungary           2.22 ([dagger]) [2003]               2,000
Finland        1.98 ([double dagger]) [2004]          39,000
Poland            1.79 ([dagger]) [2003]               1,500
Slovenia              1.81 ** [2000]                   5,000
Cz. Republic          1.69 ** [2000]                   5,000
Greece            1.12 ([dagger]) [2003]              11,000

Notes: This table covers all the Eastern European nations for which
we have data regarding both gun ownership and murder rates. Gun
ownership data comes from GRADUATE INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL
STUDIES, SMALL ARMS SURVEY (2003).

* CANADIAN CENTRE FOR JUSTICE STATISTICS, HOMICIDE IN CANADA, 2002,
JURISTAT at 3.

** United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime, The Seventh United
Nations Survey on Crime Trends and the Operations of Criminal
Justice Systems (1998-2000), Mar. 31, 2004, at 82, 260, 287,
370, 405, 398.

([dagger]) CANADIAN CENTRE FOR JUSTICE STATISTICS, HOMICIDE IN
CANADA, 2003, JURISTAT at 3.

([double dagger]) CANADIAN CENTRE FOR JUSTICE STATISTICS,
HOMICIDE IN CANADA, 2004, JURISTAT at 3.

Table 4: Intentional Deaths: United States vs.
Continental Europe Rates

In order of highest combined rate; nations having higher rates than
the United States are indicated by asterisk (suicide rate) or   sign
(murder rate).

Nation          Suicide      Murder       Combined rates

Russia          41.2 *       30.6 ( )          71.8
Estonia         40.1 *       22.2 ( )          62.3
Latvia          40.7 *       18.2 ( )          58.9
Lithuania       45.6 *       11.7 ( )          57.3
Belarus         27.9 *       10.4 ( )          38.3
Hungary         32.9 *        3.5              36.4
Ukraine         22.5 *       11.3 ( )          33.8
Slovenia        28.4 *        2.4              30.4
Finland         27.2 *        2.9              30.1
Denmark         22.3 *        4.9              27.2
Croatia         22.8 *        3.3              26.1
Austria         22.2 *        1.0              23.2
Bulgaria        17.3 *        5.1              22.4
France          20.8 *        1.1              21.9
Switzerland     21.4 *        1.1              24.1
Belgium         18.7 *        1.7              20.4
United States   11.6          7.8              19.4
Poland          14.2 *        2.8              17.0
Germany         15.8 *        1.1              16.9
Romania         12.3 *        4.1              16.4
Sweden          15.3 *        1.0              16.3
Norway          12.3 *        0.8              13.1
Holland          9.8          1.2              11.0
Italy            8.2          1.7               9.9
Portugal         8.2          1.7               9.9
Spain            8.1          0.9               9.0
Greece           3.3          1.3               4.6

Notes: Data based in general on U.N. DEMOGRAPHIC YEARBOOK (1998) as
reported in David C. Stolinsky, America: The Most Violent Nation? 5
MED. SENTINEL 199-201 (2000). It should be understood that, though
the 1998 Yearbook gives figures for as late as 1996, the figures are
not necessarily for that year. The Yearbook contains the latest figure
each nation has provided the U.N., which may be 1996, 1995, or 1994.
([double dagger]) The Swiss homicide figure that Stolinsky reports is
an error because it combines attempts with actual murders. We have
computed the Swiss murder rate by averaging the 1994 and 1995 Swiss
National Police figures for actual murders in those years given in
RICHARD MUNDAY & JAN A. STEVENSON, GUNS AND VIOLENCE: THE DEBATE
BEFORE LORD CULLEN 268 (1996).

Table 5: European Gun/Handgun Violent Death

                                                Percent of
               Suicide   Murder    Percent of   households
                with      with     households   with hand-
Nation         handgun   handgun   with guns       guns

Belgium         18.7       1.7       16.6%         6.8%
France          20.8       1.1       22.6%         5.5%
West Germany    15.8       1.1        8.9%        6.7% *
Holland          9.8       1.2        1.9%         1.2%
Italy            8.2       1.7       16.0%         5.5%
Norway          12.3       0.8       32.0%         3.8%
Sweden          15.3       1.3       15.1%         1.5%
Switzerland     20.8     1.1 **      27.2%        12.2%

Notes: For derivation of the homicide rates, see notes to Table 4.
The data on household firearms ownership come from British Home
Office figures printed in RICHARD MUNDAY & JAN A. STEVENSON, GUNS
AND VIOLENCE: THE DEBATE BEFORE LORD CULLEN 30,275 (1996).

* Note that the data here are for West Germany and were obtained when
that nation still existed as an independent entity. See infra Tables 1
& 4 for later (but differently derived) data for the current nation of
Germany.

** Again, the Swiss homicide figure that Stolinsky reports is an error
because it combines attempts with actual murders. See notes for Table
4.

Table 6: European Firearms-Violent Deaths

                                                   Number of
                      Suicide             Murder   guns per
                       with                with     100,000
Nation      Suicide     gun     Murder     gun     population

Austria       N/A       N/A      2.14      0.53     41.02 *
Belarus      27.26      N/A      9.86      N/A       16.5
Czech Rep.   9.88      1.01      2.80      0.92      27.58
Estonia      39.99     3.63      22.11     6.20      28.56
Finland      27.28     5.78      3.25      0.87    411.20 **
Germany      15.80     1.23      1.81      0.21     122.56
Greece       3.54      1.30      1.33      0.55      77.00
Hungary      33.34     0.88      4.07      0.47      15.54
Moldova       N/A       N/A      17.06     0.63      6.61
Poland       14.23     0.16      2.61      0.27      5.30
Romania       N/A       N/A      4.32      0.12      2.97
Slovakia     13.24     0.58      2.38      0.36      31.91
Spain        5.92       N/A      1.58      0.19      64.69
Sweden       15.65     1.95      1.35      0.31     246.65

Notes: It bears emphasis that the following data come from a special
U.N. report whose data are not fully comparable to those in Tables 4
and 5 because they cover different years and derive from substantially
differing sources. (138) This special report is based on data obtained
from the governments of the nations set out below, especially data on
gun permits or other official indicia of gun ownership in those
nations. (139) The data on suicide and murder in those nations also
come from their governments as do the similar data in Tables 4 and 5,
but for later years, and also include data on the number of firearm
homicides and firearm suicides which are not available from the U.N.
source used in Tables 4 and 5.

* This may well be an undercount because an Austrian license is not
limited to a single firearm but rather allows the licensee to possess
multiple guns.

** The source from which Table 5 derives also gives figures for
Finland, which we have omitted there because they are earlier and
closely similar except in one respect: instead of official ownership
figures for guns, they give a survey-based figure for households
having a gun: 23.2%.