The Montana economy zooms along

Montana Business Quarterly, Spring, 2008 by Paul E. Polzin

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Figure 1

Actual and Projected Percent Change
in Nonfarm Labor Income,
Silver Bow County, 1997-2007

      Projected   Actual

'97      2.2        1.9
'98      2.5        6.2
'99      3.3        4.5
'00      3.2        4.0
'01      0.8      No Data
'02      2.0        1.9
'03      1.5        1.9
'04      3.1        6.5
'05      2.5        5.3
'06      4.6        4.9
'07      4.6        3.8

Source: Bureau of Business and Economic Research,
The University of Montana-Missoula. Bureau of Economic Analysis,
U.S. Department of Commerce.

Note: Table made from bar graph.

Figure 2

Actual and Projected Change in Nonfarm
Labor income, Flathead County,
2005-2011

Actual

'05   5.3
'06   4.9
'07   3.8

Projected

'08   3.4
'09   3.7
'10   3.7
'11   3.8

Source: Bureau of Business and Economic Research,
The University of Montana-Missoula. Bureau of Economic Analysis,
U.S. Department of Commerce.

Note: Table made from bar graph.

Figure 5

Labor Income in Basic Industries,
Flathead County, 2005-2007
(percent of total)

Agriculture & Related             2%
Higher Ed. & State Gov't          6%
Nonresident Travel                4%
Selected Manufacturing           17%
Transportation                    7%
Mining                           10%
Fed. Government                  14%
Trade Center-Retail, Wholesale   14%
Health Care                      13%
Other Services                   13%

Source: Bureau of Business and Economic Research,
The University of Montana-Missoula. Bureau of Economic Analysis,
U.S. Department of Commerce.

Note: Table made from bar graph.

Gallatin County

Gallatin County has consistently reported the fastest growth of Montana's major counties over the last decade, but it could decelerate rapidly if construction and real estate go into freefall. The strong local growth in both industries may have inflated the reported county growth rates since 2001. Both construction and real estate in Gallatin County have continued strong despite nationwide slowdowns. Bozeman's economy is based on strong fundamentals with diverse components that almost all experienced significant recent growth. Gallatin County is home to much of the state's high-tech industry, and it has more than recovered from the 2001 recession. From 2001 to 2005, the largest contributors to the county's growth were Montana State University (mostly research) and state government. Unlike the state's largest counties, all trade center components (especially retail trade) continue to grow in Gallatin County. Nonresident travel and the federal government also experienced significant growth.

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Figure 1

Actual and Projected Percent Change
in Nonfarm Labor Income
Gallatin County, 1997-2007

       Projected    Actual

'97       4.5          3.8
'98       3.3          8.3
'99       5.3          6.3
'00       4.9          8.2
'01       2.8
'02       3.6          2.0
'03       3.4          6.3
'04       4.4          8.6
'05       3.7          9.1
'06       6.9         10.1
'07       6.1          5.7

Sources: Bureau of Business and Economic Research,
The University of Montana-Missoula; Bureau of Economic Analysis,
U.S. Department of Commerce.

Note: Table made from bar graph.

Figure 2

Actual and Projected Change in Nonfarm
Labor Income, Gallatin County,
2005-2011

Actual

'05    9.1
'06   10.1
'07    5.7

Projected

'08    6.6
'09    5.9
'10    6.1
'11    6.1

Sources: Bureau of Business and Economic Research, The University of
MontanaMissoula; Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of
Commerce.

Note: Table made from bar graph.

Figure 5

Labor Income in Basic Industries,
Gallatin County, 2005-2007
[percent of total]

Ag. and Related               4%
Mining and Transportation     1%
Fed. Government              10%
Trade Center-Retail           7%
Trade Center-Pro. Services   10%
Nonresident Travel           19%
MSU & State Government       30%
Selected Manufacturing       19%

Sources: Bureau of Business and Economic Research,
The University of Montana-Missoula; Bureau of Economic Analysis,
U.S. Department of Commerce.

Note: Table made from bar graph.