A whopping 97% of economic forecasters surveyed by Blue Chip. (Economy).(Brief Article)(Statistical Data Included)

Purchasing, March, 2002

A whopping 97% of economic forecasters surveyed by Blue Chip are betting the recession either ended in Q4 2001 (18.7%) or will end sometime in Q1 2002 (76.8%). Plan on waiting 15-18 months to find out if they're right, however. In a statement released Feb. 11, the National Bureau of Economic Research's Business Cycle Dating Committee, which dates recessions officially, said it will not be rushed to a proclamation of any kind.

In fact, the committee said its custom is to wait until economic activity has "surpassed its previous peak before determining an official trough date." Example: the committee waited until December 1992 to announce that a trough had occurred in March 1991.