Cash Flow.

Top Producer, February, 2005

New volatility

Fed-cattle prices have been more volatile since 2003, reports Nevil Speer, Western Kentucky University. "Since 1973, the average week-to-week price shift had been relatively consistent," he says. "And the maximum or extreme moves had been declining, especially on the downside."

That trend reversed in 2003, mainly because of Canada's BSE case, he reports. Both the mean swing and the extremes have inflated.

"Given tight margins in the beef sector, it's likely that both packers and feeders will continue to be tough bargainers," says Speer. "Given that, plus the continued uncertainty about the import-export situation, more choppy and variable trade probably is in store."

Large market swings, with both fed trade and...

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