Arkansans' appetite for smaller vehicles mirrors national trends

Arkansas Business, Sept 18, 2006 by Gwen Moritz

THE DATA ISN'T PERFECT, BUT a comparison of year model 2004, 2005 and 2006 personal vehicles currently registered in Arkansas strongly suggests that buyer preferences have started to change toward the more fuel-efficient.

The three most-registered 2006 models are the same as for 2004 and 2005: Chevrolet 1500 Silverado LT Crew, the Silverado Z71 Crew and the Ford F150. Like the rest of America, Arkansans love their pick-ups. (Arkansans are different in that they like Chevy trucks better than Fords. Nationally, the F150 has been the best-selling vehicle for 23 straight years.)

But when you get below the diehard preference for pickups, you see things have started to change. No. 4 among 2006 vehicles registered in the state earlier this month was the Honda Accord. The Accord, the best-selling passenger car in the country, is not terribly different from the fourth most popular 2005 model, the Nissan Altima--although the Accord does get the edge in estimated miles per gallon. But No. 4 among 2004 models is the Chevrolet Tahoe, a full-size sport utility vehicle that dropped to No. 10 among 2005 models and has disappeared completely from the top 25 in 2006.

In fact, there are six SUV models among the 25 most registered 2004 vehicles in Arkansas, four among the 2005s and only two--the mid-size Chevrolet Trailblazer and the compact Ford Escape--among the 25 most popular 2006 models.

As the 2006 model year draws to a close, another statistic is painfully obvious: Not as many new cars are being sold. There were 153,836 personal vehicles from model year 2004 registered in the state as of the first week of September, according to data provided by the Arkansas Department of Finance & Administration, compared with 150,094 2005 models and only 100,861 2006 models.

The data isn't complete enough to draw too many conclusions, according to Mike Munns, assistant commissioner of revenue for operations and administration for DF&A.

"We really don't want to say unless we were comparing apples with apples," Munns said.

Buyers are supposed to register cars within 30 days of purchase, but not all do, he said. Buyers of new 2004 and 2005 models have had a lot more time to get them registered than buyers of new 2006 cars, he said.

Still, Munns said, national reports on auto sales do support the idea that sales are slumping.

Forbes.com last week reported national trends that mirror in many ways the changes the DF&A data suggests among Arkansas buyers. For instance, the Ford F150 and the Chevy Silverado are still Nos. 1 and 2 nationally, but even their sales for 2006 (through August) are down by double digits compared with the same period in 2005.

Meanwhile, the Toyota Camry displaced the Dodge Ram pickup at No. 3--not due to any great increase (barely I percent) in the Camry's sales but because Ram's sales are down 12 percent.

"Mileage figures go hand in hand with understanding car sales these days," wrote Forbes' Dan Lienert. "Just look at Toyota Motor's U.S. performance this year. The company's Toyota, Lexus and Scion brands have 23 models that were on the market last year and are still on sale this year. Of the 10 that have seen sales go up this year, 70 percent are small or midsize passenger cars. Of the 13 that have seen sales decline, 70 percent are full-size models, SUVs or other light trucks. The smaller, more fuel-efficient cars are the winners, and the heavier, thirstier cars are the losers."

The continuation of that trend may depend on how long gasoline prices remain relatively low. Last week the average price in Arkansas was $2.50, down 42 cents in a single month, according to the AAA.

BY GWEN MORITZ

gmoritz@abpg.com

Most Popular Personal Vehicles

Year models 2004, 2005 and 2006 ranked by number registered in
Arkansas as of September 2006

                            Body             No.        % of Total
2006 Year Model Vehicles    Type          Registered   Registrations

1    Chevrolet 1500        Pickup            3,936         3.9%
     Silverado
     LT Crew
2    Chevrolet 1500        Pickup            3,141         3.1%
     Silverado
     Z71 Crew
3    Ford F150             Pickup            2,516         2.5%
4    Honda Accord          Mid-size          2,265         2.2%
5    Toyota Camry          Mid-size          1,928         1.9%
6    Toyota Corolla        Compact           1,790         1.8%
7    Honda Civic           Compact           1,735         1.7%
8    Nissan Altima         Mid-size          1,658         1.6%
9    Chevrolet Impala      Full-size         1,597         1.6%
10   Ford F250             Pickup            1,539         1.5%
11   Chevrolet             Mid-size SUV      1,452         1.4%
     Trailblazer
12   Ford F150 Crew XLT    Pickup            1,287         1.3%
13   GMC 1500              Pickup            1,253         1.2%
14   Dodge Caravan         Minivan           1,205         1.2%
15   Ford Mustang          Coupe             1,179         1.2%
16   Chevrolet 2500        Pickup            1,109         1.1%
     Silverado 25
17   Honda Odyssey         Minivan           1,109         1.1%
18   GMC 1500 Crew SLE     Pickup            1,022         1.0%
19   Toyota Avalon         Full-size         1,019         1.0%
20   Dodge 1500 Quad       Pickup            1,017         1.0%
21   Hyundai Sonata        Mid-size          991           1.0%
22   Chrysler 300          Full-size         967           1.0%
23   Ford Taurus           Mid-size          966           1.0%
24   Ford Escape           Compact SUV       897           0.9%
25   Chevrolet Colorado    Pickup            858           0.9%

Total Top 25                                 38,436        38.1%
Total All 2006 Models Registered             100,861

                            Body               No.      % of Total
2005 Year Model Vehicles    Type           Registered   Registration

1    Chevrolet 1500        Pickup          4,469         3.0%
     Silverado
     LT Crew
2    Chevrolet 1500        Pickup          4,140         2.8%
     Silverado
     Z71 Crew
3    Ford F150             Pickup          3,932         2.6%
4    Nissan Altima         Mid-size        3,749         2.5%
5    Toyota Camry          Mid-size        3,271         2.2%
6    Chevrolet Impala      Full-size       3,268         2.2%
7    Chevrolet             Mid-size SUV    3,015         2.0%
     Trailblazer
8    Ford F150 Crew 4x2    Pickup          2,973         2.0%
9    Dodge-Caravan         Minivan         2,882         1.9%
10   Chevrolet Tahoe       Full-size SUV   2,826         1.9%
11   Honda Accord          Mid-size        2,824         1.9%
12   Chevrolet Malibu      Mid-size        2,551         1.7%
13   Dodge 1500 Quad       Pickup          2,365         1.6%
14   Ford Explorer         Mid-size SUV    2,184         1.5%
15   GMC 1500              Pickup          2,093         1.4%
16   Ford Taurus           Mid-size        2,066         1.4%
17   Toyota Corolla        Compact         1,966         1.3%
18   Chevrolet 2500        Pickup          1,660         1.1%
19   Ford Escape           Compact SUV     1,626         1.1%
20   Honda Civic           Compact         1.566         1.0%
21   Ford Mustang          Coupe           1,553         1.0%
22   Ford F250             Pickup          1,542         1.0%
23   Chrysler Town         Minivan         1,451         1.0%
     & Country
24   Chevrolet Colorado    Pickup          1,406         0.9%
25   Ford Focus            Compact         1,324         0.9%

Total Top 25                               32,702        21.8%
Total All 2005 Models Registered           150,094

                                 Body         No. %       of Total
2004 Year Model Vehicles         Type       Registered   Registrations

1    Chevrolet 1500         Pickup             4,578      3.0%
     Silverado
     LT Crew
2    Chevrolet 1500         Pickup             4,497      2.9%
     Silverado
     Z71 Crew
3    Ford F150              Pickup             3,836      2.5%
4    Chevrolet Tahoe        Full-size SUV      3,713      2.4%
5    Chevrolet              Mid-size SUV       3,363      2.2%
     Trailblazer
6    Ford F150 Crew XLT     Pickup             3,278      2.1%
7    Chevrolet Impala       Full-size          3,263      2.1%
8    Dodge 1500 Quad        Pickup             3,182      2.1%
9    Ford Explorer          Mid-size SUV       2,895      1.9%
10   Honda Accord           Mid-size           2,838      1.8%
11   Toyota Camry           Mid-size           2,665      1.7%
12   Chevrolet Cavalier     Compact            2,547      1.7%
13   Ford F250              Pickup             2,254      1.5%
14   Chevrolet Malibu       Mid-size           2,252      1.5%
15   Hyundai Santa Fe       Mid-size SUV       2,079      1.4%
16   Pontiac Grand Am SE    Mid-size           1,996      1.3%
17   GMC Pickup             Pickup             1,978      1.3%
18   Ford Taurus            Mid-size           1,886      1.2%
19   Ford Expedition        Full-size SUV      1,837      1.2%
20   Chevrolet              Pickup             1,813      1.2%
     Silverado 2500
21   Chevrolet 1500 C15     Pickup             1,622      1.1%
22   Ford Mustang           Coupe              1,616      1.1%
23   Dodge Charger          Full-size          1,534      1.0%
24   GMC Yukon              Full-size SUV      1,525      1.0%
25   Pontiac Grand Am SE1   Mid-size           1,523      1.0%

Total Top 25                                  64,570      42.0%
Total All 2004 Models Registered             153,836

Researched by Gwen Moritz