'Expert' Predictions Often Fall Short, Says Grawemeyer World Order Winner
U.S. Newswire, December, 2007
To: EDUCATION EDITORS
Contact: Denise Fitzpatrick of University of Louisville, 1-502- 852-6171, denise.fitzpatrick@louisville.edu
LOUISVILLE, Ky., Dec. 3 /PRNewswire-USNewswire/ -- Political pundits should be held accountable for the predictions they make, says the winner of the 2008 University of Louisville Grawemeyer Award for Ideas Improving World Order.
Philip Tetlock, a University of California, Berkeley, professor of business administration and political science, earned the prize for ideas he set forth in his 2005 book, Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?
A great many political forecasts turn out to be inaccurate, which is troubling since government officials routinely rely on them to make decisions, Tetlock says.
In a...
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