DOD worries that China is faking itself out

Manufacturing & Technology News, March 31, 2008

China is modernizing every aspect of its military, save perhaps for one important area: its military doctrine, according to the Pentagon in its annual assessment of China's military might. But applying ancient Chinese history to shape modern thinking might not be such a great idea.

"Recent decades have witnessed within the People's Liberation Army (PLA) a resurgence of the study of classic Chinese military figures Sun Zi, Sun Pin, Wu Qi and Shang Yang and their writings," writes the Pentagon on page 20 of its "Military Power of the People's Republic of China 2008" report to Congress.

One of the primary tenants of these writers is the use of deception and misinformation to counter an enemy that might be more powerful. These concepts might have worked hundreds of years ago, but may not be appropriate in an era of free flow of information and the growing demand for transparency in the global economy, writes the Pentagon.

China's central government's emphasis on secrecy along with the PLA's use of denial and deception in virtually every aspect of its military operations including the amount of money it is spending on new weapons "could lead to miscalculation and misunderstanding by outsiders of China's strategic intentions," according to the report. "Conversely, overconfidence among China's leaders in the uncertain benefits of stratagem and deception might lead to their own miscalculation in crisis."

The same tactics of deception used by commanders against adversaries are used within the army itself--to cover up problems with the PLA. "Secrecy and deception, therefore, may confuse China's leaders as much as its adversaries," according to the report from the Office of the Secretary of Defense.

The PLA could be relying on modern information technology as a "force multiplier," along with other concepts that have not proven themselves in the battlefield. "The PLA remains untested and this lack of operational experience complicates outside assessment of its progress in meeting the aspirations of its doctrine," says the report. This same lack of assessment exists for China's leaders who mostly do not have military experience, "giving rise to potential miscalculation that could spark or exacerbate crisis." If a crisis did arise, China's political leaders could get rotten advice on what to do from inexperienced commanders basing their judgment on their "scientific" military doctrines that are "divorced from the realities of the modern battlefield."