Hilfe Daily Briefing

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Articles in April, 2006 issue of Hilfe Daily Briefing

• AUSTRALIA: Retail sales, consumer credit, housing market and jobs all stronger than expected; chances of rate hike this year have increased; focus on Q1 inflation
  by Anonymous
• NIGERIA: Controversy builds over third term as Obasanjo and Abubakar clash openly; GDP grows 8.3% in Q1, reserves heading for USD50bn despite debt repayment
  by Anonymous
• PHILIPPINES: Budget delay threatens growth, forecast already trimmed on weak exports; remittances keep PHP and external accounts strong, rates on hold for now
  by Anonymous
• SINGAPORE: Shares at new high on US interest rate signal, SGD at eight-year peak but threat to exports limited and March shipments strong, February retail sales mixed
  by Anonymous
• Upward pressure on EUR as central banks hold more in reserves and G7 calls for surplus countries to allow currency appreciation against USD (update to Apr 24th 2006)
  by Anonymous
• TAIWAN: March export orders and output growth better than expected but down from two-month and end 2005 rate, pointing to gradual slowdown in growth into Q2
  by Anonymous
• SOUTH AFRICA: Rise in private sector credit growth revives interest rate debate, but slowing output and prospect of lower PPI inflation point to no change in policy this month
  by Anonymous
• KENYA: Further pressure on Kibaki as Awori appears implicated in Anglo Leasing scandal; power shortages looming, will further undermine growth, inflation over 19%
  by Anonymous
• TAIWAN: March imports weak as oil and machinery purchases fell, worries on consumer imports on credit card problem; March inflation low; rates up and may rise again
  by Anonymous
• RUSSIA: Faster end-2005 growth followed up with Q1 inflation decline, but state utility-led growth remains fragile, masks slower progress in non-commodity industries
  by Anonymous
• ISRAEL: Policy issues and cabinet posts dominate coalition talks between Kadima and Labour; interest rates to rise again next week as inflation climbs to 3.6%
  by Anonymous
• FRANCE: Structural reforms in jeopardy following CPE withdrawal; but rising oil prices and EUR more of a threat to current economic strength
  by Anonymous
• ARGENTINA: Robust growth sustained through February; inflation battle goes on but price fears dent consumer confidence; unclear if Kirchner will seek re-election in 2007
  by Anonymous
• LITHUANIA: Ruling coalition splits; eurozone membership at start of 2007 still sought despite EU hostility over inflation; robust economic growth sustained
  by Anonymous
• MOROCCO: GDP growth could accelerate to 5% in Q1 as agriculture rebounds, but two-month trade date suggest manufacturing remains weak, especially textiles
  by Anonymous
• ESTONIA: Buoyant economic growth keeping inflation above 4%, compromising hoped-for EUR adoption in January 2007
  by Anonymous
• AUSTRALIA: Headline and underlying prices rise quite strongly in Q1, increasing chances that interest rates may be hiked sooner than expected
  by Anonymous
• MEXICO: Low March inflation despite continued MXN fall; consensus forecast improves 2006 growth and external accounts, outlook; oil buoys February fiscal position
  by Anonymous
• KAZAKHSTAN: Improving chance of renewed oil expansion from 2007, but broader industrial and financial growth require political as well as corporate governance reform
  by Anonymous
• PAKISTAN: Surge in March imports points to USD12bn trade deficit despite buoyant exports, but reserves recover; inflation slowing sharply, eases pressure on rates
  by Anonymous
• ROMANIA: Wider fiscal deficit ensures faster growth in 2006/07, with inflation and external gap set to peak at manageable rates; weakened opposition improves reform prospects
  by Anonymous
• PORTUGAL: Consumer price inflation up to 3.1% in March; government meets budget deficit target of 6.0%; current account deficit widens on worsening competitiveness
  by Anonymous
• SERBIA-MONTENEGRO: EU talks depend on Mladic arrest by end-April; political rapprochement to help reforms now delivering faster growth and gradually falling inflation
  by Anonymous
• BULGARIA: Tax cuts to erode fiscal surplus next year, slowing inflation reduction as state seeks faster pay, investment and production growth despite risk of EU entry delay
  by Anonymous
• ITALY: Markets increasingly worried by rising debt, exports at risk from weak EU demand and loss of competitiveness; election outcome may ease some uncertainty
  by Anonymous
• SINGAPORE: MAS decision to leave policy unchanged surprised markets and prompted SGD correction; Q1 GDP slow on quarter, strong on year, official forecast still too low
  by Anonymous
• BRAZIL: Lula plans re-election strategy, impeachment threat resumes, 2006 budget approval sought; consensus expects 75-basis point rate cut today
  by Anonymous
• CHINA: Q1 GDP growth at 10.2% as March output jumps on strong exports and investment, hence policy debate on lending despite sliding inflation; 2006 growth near 9.5%
  by Anonymous
• CHINA: After Hu's caution on CNY, Beijing signals it may move "a little bit faster" but wants action in return, G7 passes baton to IMF over currencies, both press China
  by Anonymous
• MEXICO: Calderon takes lead in latest presidential race survey as AMLO stays out of televised debate; surprise interest rate cut, recent indicators show economy steady
  by Anonymous
• UNITED KINGDOM: Economy growing around trend rate and inflation at target level; interest rates therefore unlikely to change for some time
  by Anonymous
• CROATIA: Investment and tourism upturn lift 2005 growth to above-target 4.3%, maintaining fiscal improvement, but major spending cuts unlikely ahead of 2007 election
  by Anonymous
• PAKISTAN: Privatisation revenues and bond issue to bolster reserves despite eight-month current account deficit of USD3.7bn; KSE sets new highs on economic outlook
  by Anonymous
• GERMANY: Business confidence remains high on strong exports; consumer confidence also rising but still constrained by high unemployment and weak income growth
  by Anonymous
• INDIA: RBI surprises by not raising rates, July hike expected; inflation eases again but oil a big threat, February output up and may rise further judging by March exports
  by Anonymous
• LATVIA: Government in minority as New Era party quits coalition; growth continues at breakneck pace, boosting inflation and widening trade deficit
  by Anonymous
• SWEDEN: Surveys, forecasts and hard data all point to still buoyant economy; inflation jumped to 1.1% in March, consensus still expects June rate rise
  by Anonymous
• ISRAEL: Olmert close to finalising coalition after deal with Labour, Kadima retains finance ministry, ensuring policy continuity; rates raised again, another hike likely in June
  by Anonymous
• MEXICO: AMLO progressing towards presidential victory in July, momentum may lead to significant gains for PRD in Congress; pragmatism on economy but innovations seen
  by Anonymous
• SOUTH AFRICA: Retail sales growth slowed in January, but consumer demand remains buoyant as car sales surge; PMI above 50 in March, but Q1 manufacturing probably weak
  by Anonymous
• BRAZIL: Selic rate cut to five-year low amid fresh signs of slowing inflation; budget approval for 2006, deficit curbs seen for 2007; political situation mixed
  by Anonymous
• HUNGARY: Ruling centre-left coalition looks set to retain power unless centre-right parties unite; post-election fiscal challenges loom large, with investor sentiment fragile
  by Anonymous
• ITALY: Prodi government to be installed in May, some deficit reduction possible but no structural reform; rebound in February industrial output
  by Anonymous
• MEXICO: Support for AMLO weakens, gains for Calderon, AMLO seeks to woo business; February industry output robust, high oil prices underpin MXN
  by Anonymous
• PERU: Run-off between Humala and Garcia likely, worrying for markets; GDP growth slows in early 2006, export growth down; interest rates raised despite low inflation
  by Anonymous
• POLAND: Coalition-building stumbles as finance minister's conditions disappoint likely allies; growth at risk as central bank halts monetary easing despite record low inflation
  by Anonymous
• COLOMBIA: Uribe secures majority in Congress, increasing chances of pension and tax reforms later this year; current account deficit widened to 1.7% of GDP in 2005
  by Anonymous
• SPAIN: Inflation remains stubbornly high, slowing only slightly to 3.9% in March; current account deficit surges 55% in 2005 to 7.6% of GDP
  by Anonymous
• CHILE: Higher March inflation, annual rate at ceiling, February growth below forecast, but consensus looks to April rate rise; Q1 trade surplus close to USD4bn
  by Anonymous
• NORWAY: Labour market tightens and credit growth booms as interest rates rise; but core inflation slowed to 0.9% in March and solid economy helps labour market
  by Anonymous
• SOUTH AFRICA: Interest rates still on hold as another fall in manufacturing output in February points to further softening of GDP growth in Q1
  by Anonymous
• UNITED KINGDOM: Survey data suggest that growth is maintaining its recent strength, while house prices are rising strongly again; but still little prospect of early rate change
  by Anonymous
• BRAZIL: Consensus continues to defer May Selic interest rate forecast, questions over primary fiscal surplus; trade and current account data fair
  by Anonymous
• AZERBAIJAN: Oil boom and US support boost Aliyev's grip on power, but purge of political and business associates of sacked privatisation architect sours business climate
  by Anonymous
• SOUTH KOREA: Finance minister's forecast of 6% Q1 growth may stand up if strong exports translate into robust March output; rates probably on hold
  by Anonymous
• THAILAND: Thaksin resignation may break political logjam but big challenges ahead, markets and sentiment may pick up but Q1 already promising; rates may rise again
  by Anonymous
• UKRAINE: Reformist parties on course for new coalition but divided over economic strategy, with likely premier Tymoshenko proposing tax cuts to for industrial revival
  by Anonymous
• TURKEY: Strong industrial production and growth figures, accompanied by further widening of current account deficit; threat of global liquidity tightening persists
  by Anonymous
• BOSNIA-HERZEGOVINA: Constitutional changes, if approved before October election, pave way for stronger government; restructured state utilities move closer to privatisation
  by Anonymous
• HONG KONG: March PMI at 23-month high on orders and output, jobs up again, inflation lower than forecast; February retail sales solid, but below forecast
  by Anonymous
• EGYPT: Peak tourism season to suffer from latest bomb attacks, undermining hopes of another record year and cutting 2006/07 GDP growth; security clampdown expected
  by Anonymous
• NETHERLANDS: Further signs of accelerating growth; producer and consumer confidence continue rising and there are signs that consumer spending is picking up
  by Anonymous
• ROMANIA: Capital inflows buoyant as EU lowers obstacles to 2007 accession, but limited scope for fiscal or monetary tightening maintains risk of inflation overshoot
  by Anonymous
• GHANA: Interest rates left unchanged at end-March MPC meeting, but prospect of single-digit inflation could see further easing soon; GDP growth outlook still improving
  by Anonymous
• CHINA: Q1 business confidence up, business climate mixed, March PMI up on strong orders, margins squeezed but no early crunch, Q1 and 2006 GDP prospects good
  by Anonymous
• POLAND: Growth near 5% and inflation below 1% in Q1, keeping tax cuts on horizon, but political risk could restrain H2 investment as PiS fails to secure liberal coalition
  by Anonymous
• BULGARIA: Scope for tax cuts limited as strong demand raises pressure for continued fiscal surplus; floods expose administrative quality fears that keep EU entry uncertain
  by Anonymous
• EGYPT: Balance of payments boost likely as trade deficit falls and tourism rises again, with Bank of Alexandria sale to lift capital inflows; rates cut again as inflation stays low
  by Anonymous
• GHANA: March inflation below 10% for first time since 1999 and could slow further in coming months, bringing lower interest rates; finance minister sees 7-8% GDP growth
  by Anonymous
• SOUTH AFRICA: March prices data broadly favourable, lower PPI inflation in coming months should contain likely upward drift in CPIX inflation; rates on hold for some time
  by Anonymous
• ITALY: Weak investment behind flat Q4 GDP, but German orders lift business confidence in Q1, PMI rises further; March inflation unchanged but rise expected in April
  by Anonymous
• FINLAND: Domestic economic news remains encouraging, with industrial output rising 3.1% on the year in February; inflation subdued at just 0.9% but ECB rates to rise anyway
  by Anonymous
• BELGIUM: Signs of mild recovery remain in place, led by exports but with tentative evidence that consumer demand may be starting to pick up
  by Anonymous
• TUNISIA: Weak tourism figures cast doubt over extent of rebound in GDP after 4.0% growth in 2005; USD2.2bn Tunisie Telecom sale to offset wider current account deficit
  by Anonymous
• ARGENTINA: Recent economic indicators fair though battle against inflation far from over; tax revenues and trade surplus hold up; end in sight for Uruguay rift
  by Anonymous
• DENMARK: Another year of around 3% growth in view with consumer and business confidence still high; fears of labour shortages as unemployment falls to 30-year low
  by Anonymous
• IRELAND: Inflation climbs to 3.5% in March, highlighting fears over competitiveness; but new figures show tax burden on labour is lowest among OECD countries
  by Anonymous
• RUSSIA: Refusal to deregulate energy markets worsens political tensions with US and EU, but keeps up investor appeal, with non-oil sectors main victims of WTO delay
  by Anonymous
• BRAZIL: April IPCA-15 shows slowing inflation but Copom flags smaller rate cuts; March primary surplus at record but Q1 result down; PMDB focus for alliance
  by Anonymous
• JAPAN: Shares near six-year high as March Tankan shows good prospects and investment outlook; jobs market very strong, consumption gains in view
  by Anonymous

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