Holiday gains likely won't match '05; Income growth will fuel sales; predictions range from 4.8% to 7% boost.(Christmas sales)

Advertising Age, November, 2006 by Frazier, Mya

Byline: MYA FRAZIER

mfrazier@crain.com

You won't find uniformity in Christmas sales forecasts this year, except this: There's little chance gains in 2006 will be as hefty as in 2005.

The seemingly endless barrage of predictions ranges from a healthy 4.8% uptick from the International Council of Shopping Centers to a robust 7% boost from consulting firm Deloitte. In between, you'll find a 5% rise to $457 billion from the National Retail Federation and a 6.5% jump predicted by Merrill Lynch.

Although most agree 2006 growth rates won't surpass the increase of 6.1% in November and December 2005, as tracked by the Commerce Department, retail sales will log in above the $746 billion for...