Advertising Industry
Industry: Email Alert RSS FeedBlack Friday, opaque as ever; Why forecasting firms' holiday-sales predictions just lead to uncertainty.(News)
Advertising Age, November, 2007 by York, Emily Bryson
Byline: EMILY BRYSON YORK
Retail sales will be up 4% this holiday season. Or not.
Though the holiday-shopping season doesn't officially start until the day after Thanksgiving, so-called Black Friday, the annual ritual of predicting holiday-sales growth has been in full swing for a month or longer.
Historically, the forecasts haven't been as far-flung as one might imagine. The National Retail Federation, Deloitte & Touche and TNS Retail Forward have all predicted holiday-sales increases within 2% of the actual number since 2001 (see chart). But while the numbers are close, the data sets are not.
Each organization designates a different span of time for the "holiday season,'' and each includes a different array of industries. It all...
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