The Numbers War

Atlantic, The, May, 2006 by Joshua Green

One of the central dramas in Washington this year is how the expected drawdown of U.S. troops in Iraq will affect voters. What’s vexing for President Bush and the Republicans is that their political problem with Iraq has come to match the military one: things look like they’re getting worse, not better.

The tension between Bush’s many public assurances of success in Iraq and the public’s evolving perception that the insurgency is growing, not shrinking, could determine the party’s fate in November. The current tension over the insurgency’s size is the product of a hazy understanding of the insurgent threat, coupled with the desire of pro-war politicians to portray Iraq as a success. Statistics, no matter how shaky their connection to underlying reality, are something...

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