Striking Al-Qaeda’s New Base

How likely is a U.S. incursion into the tribal areas in the next two years?

65% Somewhat likely

“I say ‘somewhat likely’ because it would be very difficult for a president to say no to an attack if the intelligence community ‘assured’ him of the target. The president would fear being accused of not having the guts and missing an opportunity.”

“And more so if the Musharraf government falls leading to instability and/or a radical takeover.”

“Any incursion is likely to be triggered by better-than-usual intelligence about the location and activities of senior jihadist leaders.”

“As al-Qaeda gets stronger in Pakistan and as its leaders elevate their public profile in the shadow of Musharraf’s troubles, the pressure on the administration to do ‘something’ will be high, and it is possible that they will carry out some ...