Annual California poverty estimates: updated and revised for 1960-2000

American Journal of Economics and Sociology, The,  April, 1993  by Robert G. Mogull

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THE BUREAU OF THE CENSUS, U.S. Department of Commerce, estimates annual poverty for the nation and decennial poverty for subnational jurisdictions. However, it makes no estimates of annual poverty for individual states. Consequently, this project estimates annual counts of the poor for the years 1960 through 2000 for six segments of California's population--all residents, whites, blacks, Hispanics, the elderly (age 65 and over), and female headed householders.

Recently, the author computed similar estimates, "Annual Estimates of California's Poor: 1959 Through 1990," American Journal of Economics and Sociology, Vol. 50, No. 3, July 1991: 299-312). Interest generated from the state government, advocacy groups, and the news media warrants this follow-up study. Here census data for 1990 are incorporated, the methodology for creating estimates is refined, estimates are projected to the turn of the century, and errors in the estimates are calculated.

The methodology employs both regression (primarily nonlinear) and graphic techniques. Benchmark points of reference are the official Census Bureau estimates of state poverty for the years 1960, 1970, 1976, 1980 and 1990--for each of the six population segments. Regressing the number poor against year measures a basic average relationship. From these average relationships, estimates are derived for the intervening years and for projections. Typically, the overall trend for each population group is segmented in order to achieve the closest possible statistical fits. Results from the regressions permit the calculation of differences between the actual and estimated figures for each group for each benchmark year. These rates of error provide an indication of the relative confidence in estimates of annual group poverty. Whereas the overall error rate is a very modest 2.668%, the rates among groups vary between .048% and 6.451%, with most in the vicinity of 3%. Error rates of estimation are reported in the last rows of the accompanying table.

TABULAR DATA OMITTED

Reality and Its Model

IF A BETTER economic and political model is to be created, then perhaps more than ever before it must derive from profound existential and moral changes in society. This is not something that can be designed and introduced like a new car. If it is to be more than just a new variation on the old degeneration, it must above all be an expression of life in the process of transforming itself. A better system will not automatically ensure a better life. In fact, the opposite is now true: only by creating a better life can a better system be developed.

The Homogenization of the United States

THE ANAHEIM CA MEETINGS of the Allied Social Sciences were well-arranged and enjoyable in spite of the foul weather. At their conclusion a trip into Los Angeles proper was possible but depressing. Shelters were abundant and the homeless very numerous. Is this the land of the free and the home of the brave? Whose delusion is that?

There was so little that was different. All the malls seemed like the malls in all the other cities of the country. Nearly all their shops seemed mere duplicates to those everywhere else. It may not be true that "When you have seen one slum you have seen them all," but it may be true that when you have seen one mall you have seen them all.

The franchise movement has spread sameness all about the country far more than the phenomena of the chain store. However, they too continue to add to the sameness. While the franchisees may be too numerous, perhaps the chains got too big in the first place.

But does the recent news from Sears of the closing down of catalogue sales and of many stores imply business opportunities for others and new goods for consumers? The troubles of some of the old chains, while they roil individual lives of their employees and those of their suppliers and many communities, may not call forth dramatic bursts of individual initiatives expressed in new, and at least different (even if not better) products, but more McDonalds and the like.

How good will all those Sears' maintenance agreements and guarantees be when the local stores that sold them are closed? Is a class action suit needed and possible? A captain who runs his ship onto the rocks can lose his license. Do we need a similar arrangement for negligent and/or incompetent CEOs?

COPYRIGHT 1993 American Journal of Economics and Sociology, Inc.
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