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Political process and popular protest: the mobilization against free trade in Canada
American Journal of Economics and Sociology, The, Oct, 1996 by Jeffrey M. Ayres
In short, all of these divisions manifested themselves in greater opportunities for PCN access and intervention into the Parliamentary process. The weakness of the Liberal party, for one, provided the anti-free trade forces with unusual access and influence on a party than otherwise would have been expected to be the case had the Liberals had a stronger leader, been united in their caucus with clear goals, and had been higher in the polls. The variety of Parliamentary delaying tactics employed by the opposition kept the mobilizing issue of free trade on the agenda and in the public's eye throughout the long summer which coincided with both a gradual decline in the public's support for free trade and an increase in the public's desire for an election to settle the free trade issue.(28)
VII
Political Allies and the Salience of the Anti-FTA Vote
Complementing the supportive political context for anti-free trade mobilization created by these elite divisions was the impact of the highly volatile Canadian electorate. Electoral instability, or the instability of political alignments, represents another key component of a political opportunity structure, and a particularly relevant factor in this case. Scholars have linked the unpredictability and volatility of an electorate to a more tolerant, receptive attitude on the part of political elites, who are more likely to cooperate with insurgents than when electoral cleavages are more solidly frozen. The "electoral needs" of parties - in the context of a volatile electorate or on the heels of an election - thus can lead parties to become "crucial interpreters of groups preferences."(29)
The years following the 1984 federal election witnessed a period of unprecedented electoral instability within the Canadian electorate, since all three federal political parties held the lead in public opinion polls at one time or another. The significance of this instability, on the heels of the Progressive Conservative party's landslide election, is considerable. Johnston et al. see the 1984 election as marking an "alignment shift." He noted, "1984 heralded not just a short-lived censure of the natural party of government but a wholly new alignment of electoral forces - forces that promised to make the conservatives the dominant party."(30) This volatility led many observers to conclude that an electoral realignment was occurring.
This perception of realignment may be just as fortuitous as an actual electoral realignment for the creation of social movement political opportunities.(31) This perception and its impact was perhaps nowhere more pronounced than within the Liberal camp. A Gallup poll conducted between July 8 and 11, 1987, showed the NDP was favored by forty-one percent of the decided voters, and many commentators voiced concern over the possibility of the NDP permanently displacing the Liberals as the only other national party in Canada.(32) Having been crushed in the previous election and hanging on as the official Parliamentary opposition by a mere ten seats over the NDP, Liberal elites viewed this NDP surge with great concern. The NDP's rise potentially heralded an erosion of the political center and a marginalization of the Liberal Party. Free trade had emerged as a left vs. right issue politically, possibly presaging an contest between the NDP and the Conservatives.
