The Global Challenge

Population Reports, Fall, 2000

In many countries over the past two decades growth in the food supply has lagged behind population growth (75). Worldwide, the grain harvest increased about 1% annually between 1990 and 1997, a rate of growth substantially slower than the average population growth rate in the developing world, at 1.6% (21,23, 53, 113).

In 64 of 105 developing countries studied by FAO between 1985 and 1995, food production lagged behind population growth (74). Among regions, Africa fared the worst during this period. Food production per person fell in 31 of 46 African countries (74, 95).

Moreover, water shortages are becoming constraints on development in general and on food production in particular (186, 201). While population tripled in the last century, water withdrawals grew sixfold (120, 233) (see p. 13).

Countries fall into three groups: (1) those that have the agricultural capacity to be self-sufficient in food production; (2) those that are not self-sufficient in food production but have enough other resources to import adequate supplies of food; and (3) those that are not self-sufficient in food production and do not have the financial resources needed to fill the gap with imports.

In the first group, the agriculturally self-sufficient countries, are some European countries plus Australia, Canada, and the United States. These countries have sufficient cropland to meet most of their own food needs now and probably for many decades to come. In fact, many of these countries produce substantial surpluses of food, which they export (73, 75). They probably could produce enough to meet the food needs of all food-deficit countries, if those countries could afford to buy the food. Countries in the second group, food importers, include Japan, Singapore, some European countries, and the oil-producing states of the Arabian Gulf.

The third group consists of the "low-income food-deficit countries," to use the term coined by FAO (75). The low-income food-deficit countries comprise most of the developing world, including nearly all of sub-Saharan Africa (75, 78) (see Table 3).

Table 3. The 82 Low-Income Food-Deficit Countries, 1999