The Global Challenge

Population Reports, Fall, 2000

Globally, fertility has fallen by half since the 1960s, to about three children per woman (243). In 65 countries, including 9 in the developing world, fertility rates have fallen below replacement level of about two children per woman (224). Nonetheless, fertility is above replacement level in 123 countries, and in some countries it is substantially above replacement level. In these countries the population continues to increase rapidly.

About 1.7 billion people live in 47 countries where the fertility rate averages between three and five children per woman. Another 730 million people live in 44 countries where the average woman has five children or more (182). Almost all population growth is in the developing world. As a result of differences in population growth, Europe's population will decline from 13% to 7% of world population over the next quarter century, while that of sub-Saharan Africa will rise from 10% to 17%. The shares of other regions are projected to remain about the same as today (169).

As population and demand for natural resources continue to grow, environmental limits will become increasingly apparent (169). Water shortages are expected to affect nearly 3 billion people in 2025, with sub-Saharan Africa worst affected (82). Many countries could avoid environmental crises if they took steps now to conserve and manage supplies and demand better, while slowing population growth by providing families and individuals with information and services needed to make informed choices about reproductive health.

Family planning programs play a key role. When family planning information and services are widely available and accessible, couples are better able to achieve their fertility desires (133). "Even in adverse circumstance--low incomes, limited education, and few opportunities for women--family planning programs have meant slower population growth and improved family welfare," the World Bank has noted (27).

If every country made a commitment to population stabilization and resource conservation, the world would be better able to meet the challenges of sustainable development. Practicing sustainable development requires a combination of wise public investment, effective natural resource management, cleaner agricultural and industrial technologies, less pollution, and slower population growth.

Better resource management protects the environment and preserves nature's productive capacity. Stronger economies can afford to invest more in protecting the environment. Slower population growth can speed economic growth and conserve natural resources.

Population Health Risks

Growing pollution poses mounting problems for public health. In virtually all countries studies identify health problems linked to environmental contaminants (31,129, 130, 132, 142, 145, 151,194, 197, 203, 206, 253, 272). Such studies have a long history. In 1855 John Snow published the results of his innovative study of the causes of cholera in London, attributing it to drinking water contaminated with raw sewage--marking the beginning of the field of epidemiology (218).