Meeting the urban challenge

Population Reports, Fall, 2002

Every week urban areas gain another one million people. Within four years half of the world's population will live in urban areas. How governments and communities meet the concurrent challenges of rapid urbanization, poverty, development, and protection of the natural environment will largely determine the world's future.

In the future, nearly all population growth worldwide will take place in urban areas of developing countries. By 2015, the UN projects, there will be 21 "megacities" of at least 10 million people--all but 4 in developing countries. While big cities attract attention, most of the world's urban population lives in smaller settlements.

Urban areas in developing countries are at the crux of the struggle to achieve better living standards. Worldwide, urban areas large and small have become engines for economic growth in the global economy as well as centers of diversity and change. Yet, facing rapid population growth, rising poverty levels, and often inadequate public institutions, many urban areas are hard pressed to provide infrastructure, housing, services, and opportunities. If they are not able to meet people's needs, poverty and hopelessness will increase.

How can conditions improve for the growing millions of urban residents? Meeting the challenges posed by rapid urbanization will be as important to the future as addressing rapid population growth itself has been in the past half century.

Developing World Becoming Urban

The developing world as a whole has been predominantly rural but rapidly is becoming urban. In 1975 only 27% of people in the developing world lived in urban areas. In 2000 the proportion was 40%, and projections suggest that by 2030 the developing world will be 56% urban. Although the developed world is already far more urban, at an estimated 75% in 2000, urban areas of developing countries are growing much faster, and their populations are larger.

Rapid urban growth reflects migration of people to cities as well as natural population increase among urban residents. Rural areas have virtually stopped gaining population. Among regions as a whole, only in sub-Saharan Africa and Oceania will rural populations grow at all in the future.

Urban Challenges

Growing urban poverty is a major concern. About 30% of the poor now live in urban areas. By 2035 the proportion is projected to reach 50%. Most of the urban poor live in slums and squatter settlements, without adequate access to clean water, sanitation, and health care. While health and child survival rates are better in urban than rural areas on average, they often are worse for the poor than for other urban residents.

Pollution of the water and air endangers the health of urban residents, causes chronic illnesses, and kills millions. Many municipalities cannot keep up with the soaring demand for water. Where access to clean water is scarce, sanitation is poor, contributing to a variety of water-related diseases.

As urban areas grow in population, they expand outward as well as upward, often overwhelming the natural environment and destroying ecosystems. Urban areas in developed countries, where consumption levels per capita are much higher than in developing countries, have a greater impact on the environment. But rapid urban expansion, rising consumption levels, and unplanned growth of many cities in developing countries also strain the natural resource base.

What Can Be Done?

Many urban settlements face a crisis. Their populations are growing so fast that local economies, public services, and infrastructures cannot keep up. Rapid population growth can make it ever harder to improve urban conditions. Thus slower growth would ease pressures and buy time to act effectively.

Better local governance is key to meeting urban challenges. Shifting authority from central governments to municipalities can help make policies, plans, and actions more responsive, especially to the urban poor. Donors and international agencies can focus more on strengthening institutional capabilities needed to meet the challenges of rapid urban growth. Urban planning can do more to address such interrelated issues as land use, slum upgrading, improved water supply, sanitation, waste management, and more efficient transportation.

An Urban Future

The world is near a historic turning point. Within four years half of the world's population will be urban. At that time, the projected urban population of 3.2 billion will be larger than the entire global population in 1967, just 40 years earlier. (For the definition of "urban," see box.)

Urban areas are gaining an estimated 67 million people per year--about 1.3 million every week (131). By 2030 about 5 billion people are expected to live in urban areas--60% of the projected global population of 8.3 billion (131) (see Figure 1).

[FIGURE 1 OMITTED]

Over the next 30 years virtually all population growth will take place in urban areas of developing countries (see Figure 2). The urban population of developing countries is projected to grow at an average annual rate of 2.4%, twice the overall annual population growth rate of 1.2% in the developing world (131). Although the urban population of developed countries also will grow faster than their total population, and the developed world will remain far more urbanized than the developing world, urban growth in developing countries is more rapid and, in absolute numbers, much greater.