Growth Rate for Worldwide DSL Installed Base to Skyrocket Past 200%, IDC Says DSL Deployments in Western Europe to Soar - International Data Corp. digital subscriber line forecast - Industry Trend or Event

Cambridge Telcom Report, Dec 6, 1999

If all goes well, growth in the digital subscriber line (DSL) equipment market could reach spectacular heights. International Data Corporation (IDC) reports the worldwide installed base of DSL lines has the potential to jump over 200% compounded annually from 1998 to 2003. This growth rate would bring the number of lines in service from a mere 70,000 in 1998 to over 27.3 million by 2003. However, IDC warns the market must overcome several barriers.

"Any leading-edge technology is likely to suffer serious problems, and DSL is no exception. The market must deal with rapidly changing standards, distance barriers, interoperability, installation labor and time, voice and data integration, and competition from cable modems. Complicating things further, it also has problems involving governmental regulation," said Brad Baldwin, director for IDC's Remote Access research program. "These issues are difficult to forecast, but we do know, if the situation does not improve, it could be the show stopper for DSL rollout."

IDC expects DSL will resolve these barriers, and by 2003, 13 of 100 homes accessing the Internet (13%) will do so using DSL. This is up dramatically from 1 out of 200, or 0.5%, in 1999. Cable modems will be the major competing technology.

Western Europe will lead the DSL growth onslaught. Its installed base will soar at a rate near 300%. Its share of the worldwide installed base will jump from just under 6% in 1999 to more than 34% by 2003. During that same period, U.S. share will diminish from more than 78% to 46%.

"The decline of U.S. share indicates DSL expectations are not simply confined to the United States," Baldwin said. "European growth will be fueled by a migration of conversion of ISDN lines to DSL beginning in late 2001. Once this migration begins, it will proceed at an explosive pace."

IDC recently published Worldwide DSL Equipment Forecast and Market Review, 1998-2003 (IDC #B20820). This report examines how the DSL market will develop. It includes forecasts for DSL's installed base, lines added, customer premises and network equipment revenue, and DSL Internet homes through 2003 segmented by four regions: the United States, Western Europe, Asia/Pacific, and rest of world. The report also presents a DSL standards update with a deployment time line and a symmetric and asymmetric DSL technology forecast. It also examines some of the key DSL equipment vendors. To order a copy of the report, contact Janis Dempsey at 1-800-343-4952, ext. 4145 or at jdempsey@idc.com.

IDC delivers dependable, relevant, and high-impact data and insight on information technology to help organizations make sound business and technology decisions. IDC forecasts worldwide IT markets and technology trends and analyzes IT products and vendors, using a combination of rigorous primary research and in-depth competitive analysis. IDC is committed to providing global research with local content through more than 500 analysts in 42 countries worldwide. IDC's customers comprise the world's leading IT suppliers, IT organizations, and the financial community. Additional information can be found at http://www.idc.com.

IDC is a division of International Data Group, the world's leading IT media, research, and exposition company.