Worldwide Digital Modem Shipments Top 3.6 Million in 1999; 95 Percent Sequential Growth in ADSL in Q4 1999! - Industry Trend or Event

Cambridge Telcom Report, Feb 28, 2000

Worldwide digital modem shipments topped 3.6 million in 1999, according to a recent report released by Cahners In-Stat Group.

Worldwide ADSL modem shipments grew 95 percent sequentially in Q4 99, due to increasing momentum behind DSL deployments. This represents the highest quarterly growth rate in 1999. Cable modem shipments remained steady at 25 percent sequential growth in Q4 1999.

"The digital modem market is becoming increasingly competitive as standards and broadening service deployment introduce new channels for DSL and cable modems," said Shannon Pleasant, Director of Cahners In-Stat's Voice and Data Communications Group. "The market is ripe for new entrants. Traditional players will not have it easy in 2000."

Efficient Networks, 3Com and Intel are becoming a legitimate threat to the traditional market leaders in the ADSL modem market. Efficient ranked number two in ADSL shipments in Q4 1999, with 17 percent market share.

This is only two points away from market leader, Alcatel, which held 19 percent market share in Q4 1999. Alcatel ended the year with 24 percent ADSL modem share, followed by Cisco, Efficient and Fujitsu/Orckit, with 16.4 percent, 16.2 percent and 15.6 percent share, respectively.

The cable modem market is no longer a two horse race as several vendors were able to gain significant share over the course of 1999. Motorola continued to lead the market in Q4 1999 with 35 percent share, followed by Terayon, Com21 and Nortel with 12.5 percent, 11.1 percent and 10.1 percent share, respectively.

Motorola and Cisco led the cable head end market in Q4 1999, with a combined share of 61 percent of the market. Alcatel alone represented over 60 percent of ADSL DSLAM ports in Q4 1999.

The report, Q4 99 Analog and Digital Modem Market Analysis, CQ0001M7, provides quarterly market shares for analog, cable and ADSL modem vendors and three quarterly rolling forecasts for those markets. To purchase the report call Matt Woods at 617/630-2139 or visit http://www.instat.com/catalog/cat-cq-modem.htm.> Cahners In-Stat Group (www.instat.com) covers the full spectrum of digital communications research from vendor to end-user, providing the analysis and perspective that allows technology vendors and service providers worldwide to make more informed business decisions.