Japanese kingmaker falls from his throne

Business Asia, May 31, 1999 by Linda Sieg

The fading influence of kingmaker Mr Noboru Takeshita is sparking jitters on Japan's political scene, but some analysts say most of the worries miss the point.

Why? Because the era when "shadow shoguns" called all the shots is already over.

Backroom deals will never disappear, but policy-making is now too complex and politics too much a matter of image management for a kingmaker in the Takeshita mould to hold sway.

"People are chasing an old ghost," said one political analyst. "Politics is dynamic, it's controversial, it's about issues and images, not just money."

That has both an upside and down for Prime Minister Mr Keizo Obuchi, who despite early type-casting as a creature of old-style clique politics, has skilfully parlayed his image as an average but honest kind of guy into rising popularity rates.

Rumours about the health of former Prime Minister Takeshita, 75, have been swirling since he went into hospital in early April for what aides said then was a back problem.

In an effort to quash rumours of more serious illness, Mr Takeshita -- who media reports say has declined to see all but his closest associates -- recently sent a video message to a party honouring another ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) elder.

Political insiders say the precise nature of Mr Takeshita's illness is beside the point, since his clout is already fading, partly due to his long hospital stay and inability to get around.

Support from Mr Takeshita, who for much of the 1990s has controlled the LDP's biggest faction, helped Mr Obuchi win his job.

Some say the fading of the backroom boss's power is a blow.

Mr Obuchi, however, has been making a credible stab at turning himself into what one pundit dubbed Japan's first post-modern Prime Minister, through a skilful public relations campaign.

High on the list of factors behind Mr Obuchi's success is an ability to sell himself as an entity many voters believe is all too rare on the political front -- an honest man with few pretensions to greatness doing his best in a tough spot.

Images aside, policy-making is now on a different plane from the heyday of backroom political fixers whose key problem was how to distribute a growing economic pie to political supporters.

Now, Japan's central political puzzle is how to distribute the pain of reforms needed to pave the way for growth at a time when the government's huge debt is growing bigger.

Importantly, many of Japan's crucial economic decisions are now being handled by a small cadre of younger lawmakers, rather than the likes of Mr Takeshita.

As one political analyst put it: "If you're talking about things like the securitisation of housing loans, who's going to ask Takeshita's advice?"

"He doesn't have a clue."