Timor clouds Jakarta vote

Business Asia, Sept 30, 1999 by Cameron Cooper

Megawati Sukarnoputri remains the front-runner to form a coalition government in Indonesia after November presidential elections, while military strongman General Wiranto's hopes appear to have been "fatally compromised" internationally by events in East Timor.

So says respected Indonesia commentator James Castle, of the Castle Group, who believes it is unlikely Wiranto will stage a military coup to seize power.

Castle, in Sydney last month to address business people at an Economist Intelligence Unit conference, said the ruling Golkar party was unlikely to support incumbent leader B.J. Habibie in the wake of fallout from the violent independence vote in East Timor.

Indonesia recently released a definitive breakdown of the results from its first democratic general election since 1955, paving the way for November's presidential vote.

As expected, the main opposition Indonesian Democratic Party-Struggle of Megawati won the majority, sweeping 153 seats in the new parliament from June's historic poll.

Its main rival, the ruling Golkar party, was in second place with 120 seats, while the Moslem-oriented United Development Party (PPP) slipped into third place.

In total, 462 seats were at stake in the June 7 vote. Another 38 seats in the 500-member parliament are reserved for members of the military.

The new MPs will make up the majority of the members of the 700-member People's Consultative Assembly (MPR), which is due to elect Indonesia's new president in November. The final results confirm that the presidential election is still open and an alliance will be needed to gain a majority.

Castle said although Megawati's supporters remained "solid", a previous reluctance to enter into coalition talks could backfire.

Before East Timor's independence vote, Castle had favoured an alliance of Megawati as president and Wiranto as vice-president. That now seems unlikely.

"Six months ago I think Wiranto would have been an acceptable candidate but because the behaviour in East Timor is being laid at his doorstep, I'd say there's at least a probability that someone is going to try to make war crimes against him," Castle said. "How can a country like Indonesia be governed by somebody with that cloud over their head."

Castle said Wiranto "has the guns" as leader of Indonesia's military to wrest control of the archipelago but that it depended on "how rough he is willing to play".

"This is all speculation ... what kind of pressures can be brought to bear financial or even physical if the military gets tough will have a lot to do as to how it plays out," he said.