A question over Hu - Profile - profile of Chinese leader Hu Jintao

Business Asia, Feb, 2003 by Tamsyn Smith

In the grey area that is Chinese politics, position and actual power are not inextricably linked--something that became clear when Hu Jintao recently took over party control from Jiang Zemin, beginning the process of succession.

Hu, who has been tipped as Jiang's successor for a decade, took over the top party role at the 16th congress in November last year (2002), and is expected to take over the presidency when Jiang retires in March.

Now the question everyone wants answered is whether Hu can pull the job off as well as his predecessor.

Power position?

Dr Jian Zhang, a lecturer at the University of NSW School of Politics, says Hu's position should be the most powerful in China, but because of the un-institutionalised nature of the Chinese system, it may not be a strong one.

"In this case, Hu Jintao has the highest position in China, but there's always a question of whether he has the associated power," Zhang says.

Long depicted as a mysterious figure in Chinese politics, it is difficult to clearly identify Hu's power base and allies.

Most of the 24-member Politburo are linked to Jiang, who promoted supporters from Shanghai, where he was Mayor from 1985 to 1989, to establish a power base when he became general secretary of the Communist Party in 1989.

Hu is now faced with the difficult task of carving out his own direction, but at the same time maintaining the support of Jiang.

No rivalry

Analysts say Hu has shown no signs of forming a rival faction through aggressive promotions, but he does have a network of supporters through his alma mater Tsinghua University, the Communist Youth League he used to head, the Central Party School he presided over, and previous jobs in the western regions of Guizhou, Garisu and Tibet.

Zhang says the worst scenario for Hu is that he will become a big leader, but with no power. So who is rivalling Hu in the power stakes?

Zeng Qinghong, who replaced Hu as head of the Central Party School, ranks number five on the party's new nine-man Politburo Standing Committee, and heads the Secretariat which handles the day to day running of the party.

Zeng was Jiang's aide when he was party chief in Shanghai and followed him to Beijing when he was appointed General Secretary in 1989, helping Jiang oust several rivals and consolidate his grip on power in the 1990s.

He reportedly made several enemies along the way.

However, Zeng is now regarded as the greatest potential rival to Hu, and is expected to become Vice President when Hu takes over the presidency from Jiang.

Cooperation

While it is unlikely Zeng would actually replace Hu as president for any reason other than Hu's retirement, it is possible Zeng will garner more power.

UNSW's Zhang says it is also important to consider the possibility that the two will co-operate very well.

"It all depends on whether they can have the necessary political wisdom to structure their interests," Zhang says.

He adds that Hu would not be a strong leader like Jiang, or Mac, because of the way the political system was changing towards a more institutionalised direction, including limited terms.

When Hu becomes President, continuity rather than change is to be expected--not because of Jiang's lasting influence, but because current policy is the only possible choice for the Chinese state, says Zhang.

"Hu will continue that policy because it is most stable and less disruptive, and gives the leader power," Zhang says.

Reform and economic development would continue to be emphasised, and international relations would remain stable.

"The bottom line is one party rule, but across that bottom line we can see reform," Zhang says.