Age-old problem as population matures - Brief Article - Statistical Data Included

Business Asia, Dec 13, 1999

Japan, China and India will soon face massive economic pressures from their ageing population bases as the number of people aged over 65 skyrockets.

An Asian Development Review report titled "Asia's Demographic Transition" suggests the next half century will see "extraordinary rises" in the proportion of the aged population in both Asia and industrialised countries.

The percentage of the population aged over 65 is expected to increase to 19 per cent by 2050 in East Asia from 6.8 per cent in 1995; to 14.7 per cent in South East Asia from 4.3 per cent; and to 13.6 per cent from 4.3 per cent in South Central Asia.

The average world growth is expected to be 14.7 per cent by 2050 from 6.5 per cent in 1995. The report claims Japan is already "entering a period where ageing will constitute an economic burden possibly greater than in any country in the world".

China will soon need to provide a system for universal old-age support.

India's problems will be similar to China's, particularly in the north where only a small minority of the aged received any kind of pension.

In broader population terms, the report has projected that East Asia's population will grow by 28 per cent over the next 55 years, compared with 75 per cent in South East Asia and 167 per cent in South Central Asia.

GROWING PAINS United Nations Population Projections,
(major regions)

                         Population     % of World   Population
                         (millions)     Population   (millions)

East Asia                    1424           25           1707
South East Asia               484            8            679
South-Central Asia           1381           24           2076
Pacific (incl. Aust            26          0.5             39
 & New Zealand)
Pacific (excluding              7          0.1             11
 Aust & New Zealand)
Sub-Saharan Africa            596           10           1150
Latin America                 482            8            676
HIGH-INCOME
COUNTRIES                    1166           20           1232
WORLD                        5716          100           7888

                       Multiplication   % of World
                         since1995      Population

East Asia                   1.20            22
South East Asia             1.40             9
South-Central Asia          1.50            26
Pacific (incl. Aust         1.37           0.5
 & New Zealand)
Pacific (excluding          1162           0.1
 Aust & New Zealand)
Sub-Saharan Africa          1.93            15
Latin America               1.40             9
HIGH-INCOME
COUNTRIES                   1.06            16
WORLD                       1.38           100