Thais put on a brave front - Thailand economic condition

Business Asia, Dec 13, 1999

For those wanting to know what Thailand's economic environment will be like in 2000, the government's Board of Investments (BOI) has simplified the outlook into a four-picture weather pattern.

If 1997 was a stormy year, 1998 just showers and 1999 cloudy, then 2000 is bound to be bright and sunny.

So says Piyanuch Wheeler, the BOI's assistant secretary general, who is confident the mild growth Thailand's economy experienced in 1999 will continue into 2000.

Wheeler says while double-digit growth rates are out of the picture in the short term, the economy will continue to be fuelled by rising business confidence and consumer spending.

"Businesses are feeling a lot better," she said. "You can also see a lot more billboards along the road, which is a sure sign things are picking up.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts the Thai economy could grow as much as 4 per cent this year and expand by a similar rate in 2000.

The IMF says the rate of expansion could be as much as 7 per cent in the first few years of the new century. Many analysts and investors, however, are still wary of plunging back into Thailand because of its inability to adequately restructure its financial sector.

As for the nation's political future (Thais go to the polls sometime next year), Wheeler says some dissatisfaction is brewing over the performance of Chuan Leekpai's government. Still, many would prefer to stand by Chuan.

THAILAND

Head of Government: Prime Minister Chuan Leekpai

Population: 61.2 million (1998)

GDP: US$111.3b (1998)

GDP per capita: US$1,800 (1998)

Strengths: Steady growth forecast for 2000; rising consumer and business confidence

Unknowns: Bank reforms still needed; high NPL ratio to remain; elections could bring political uncertainty