Challenges for the fourth generation: the RIAP Emerging Voices Project uncovered some top young talent around the region, all of whom were asked to write an essay on the topic of generational change in Asia. The competition's second winner, Sarah Hill, chose to tackle the vexing problems facing China's next generation of leaders - RIAP Emerging Voices Project - Research Institute for Asia and the Pacific

Business Asia, April, 2003 by Sarah Hill

Under Jiang Zemin, China has experienced a sustained period of relative political stability and rapid economic growth. This has been achieved within a regime that has strongly encouraged wealth creation but in the absence of liberal democratic institutions. As the third generation slowly relinquishes control to Hu and his contemporaries, this balance will change. It will not, however, change as fast as many hope.

Pluralistic

With increasing interaction between cultures by virtue of technological advancement, Chinese society will become increasingly pluralistic. It will also diverge, if only gradually, from traditional beliefs and patterns. At the same time, membership of the WTO and participation in the global free trade system will put pressure on China to undergo extensive political and economic reengineering to remain competitive. These forces will present the fourth generation with a new set of challenges which must be overcome if China is to stay on its upward economic growth curve.

If Hu Jintao and his fellow leaders possess enough intellectual and innovative capacity, they will increase and strengthen the political and economic infrastructures that lead to better public and corporate governance. The outcome of this would be a reduction in some of the structural risk factors involved when doing business in China. The reduction will not be great, however, because China will remain more authoritarian and opaque than many Western business people and economists are used to. The case may be that real and effective transformation may only happen when the fifth generation comes into power.

Finally, in terms of doing business, the alter native to waiting for China to bring in reforms agreeable to the Western mindset is that companies adapt and accommodate more to Chinese custom. This involves gaining the inside know-how by establishing strategic partners and emulating the network of contacts through which Chinese companies operate. In any case, this is beneficial. For even though China may bring in reforms that are more democratically inclined or at least more palatable to the West, it will always retain certain traditions that form part of its cultural heritage.

RELATED ARTICLE: Business Asia and Riap's unique project.

The Research Institute for Asia and the Pacific (RIAP) Emerging Voices Project, which was undertaken in conjuction with Business Asia magazine, was a unique partnership with the aim of uncovering new and emerging thought leaders in the Asia-Pacific region. The Project asked for essay submissions from 18-25 year old citizens of any Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) member country on the topic of generational change in Asia. The Project was a successful joint venture from Business Asia and RIAP. The essays received for the project, which came from throughout the world, uncovered many exciting new ideas from some leading young minds.

The two winners will now fly to either South Korea or China courtesy of Business Asia. While there, the two winners will engage in meetings with leading business and government figures. The aim is for the winners to produce two more articles for publication in Business Asia.