Sabre-rattling by China stiffens US resolve

Business Asia, March 3, 2000 by Andrew Browne

A new bout of sabre-rattling by China just as it was earning plaudits for restraint on Taiwan has given ammunition to enemies in the United States Congress who are taking aim at a deal to bring Beijing into the World Trade Organisation (WTO).

Nor has China helped its case on another bill now before Congress that calls for closer military ties between Taiwan and the United States.

Inevitably, its latest thunderings will play into the hands of US politicians and others who seek to shelter Taiwan under a proposed Theatre Missile Defence umbrella for Asia.

The Star Wars defence scheme has enraged Beijing, like the Taiwan Security Enhancement Act overwhelmingly passed by the House of Representatives and now awaiting Senate deliberation.

"Never underestimate China's ability to pick up a rock and drop it on its own foot," said one Beijing-based Western diplomat, commenting on the timing of Beijing's threat to Taiwan late last month to unleash its armies if Taipei dragged its feet indefinitely on reunification.

Previously, Beijing had threatened war only if Taiwan declared independence or in the event of a foreign invasion.

Nothing galvanises US support for Taiwan, or brings out latent American fears and suspicions of China, more than hostile words and deeds aimed at the Nationalist-ruled island, popularly seen as a plucky little democracy standing up to a giant Communist bully.

Before the latest threats, Beijing had pleasantly surprised friends and critics in the United States with its moderate response to provocations by Taiwan President Lee Teng Hui. Lee's call last July for "special state-to-state" relations between Taiwan and the Chinese mainland confirmed Beijing's worst fears of the island's first native-born president -- that he was heading towards an open declaration of independence.

China has viewed Taiwan as a renegade province ever since Nationalist forces retreated to the island in 1949 after their defeat by Mao Zedong's Red Army in a civil war.

Yet beyond angry rhetoric, bluster by a few People's Liberation Army generals -- and some small military exercises that scared nobody -- Beijing took no action.

The comparison with its behaviour in 1996 was startling.

Then, it fired salvoes of missiles into waters off Taiwan ahead of the island's first democratic elections for president, hoping to intimidate Lee's supporters. The effort backfired spectacularly: Lee won by a landslide.

Beijing's bullying also brought it eyeball-to-eyeball with the US military, which sent two aircraft carrier battle groups into waters off Taiwan.

Some attributed Beijing's temperate reaction to Lee's "state-to-state' comments to hard lessons learned during the Taiwan missile crisis.

Whatever conclusions Beijing drew from that public relations disaster have not stopped it from provoking yet another backlash from its "Taiwan compatriots".

Taiwan independent presidential candidate James Soong declared: "We won't be intimidated."

One comfort for Taiwan and its US backer is that despite warlike growlings, China still lacks the military punch to invade the island.

Military analysts say China's amphibious vehicles are capable of transporting only about 10,000 troops across the 160km deep-water Taiwan Strait. They would be faced with a 400,000-strong defence force.

Analysts said it was too early to predict the impact that China's new threat would have on a Congressional vote expected by August on whether to grant China Permanent Normal Trade Relation status, which would smooth its entry into the WTO.

The Clinton administration is lobbying Congress to back China's WTO entry against opposition from labour unions and from both Republican and Democratic legislators.

By Andrew Brownein Beijing