Asia's ally? How pro-Asia is US President George W Bush? - in light of global war on terror, war in Iraq - Cover Story

Business Asia, July, 2003 by Randolph Ramsay

Few would deny that US President George W Bush's time in office has been marked by great change. The events of September 11, followed by the Bush administration's strong reaction and the launch of the "global war on terror", has seen sizeable shifts in the world's political and economic landscape.

Asia has not been immune to these changes. The US' increased focus on defence and its subsequent affect on the business and trade arena has meant a shifting of relations almost across the region. With America one of the key (if not the largest) trading partners for most Asian countries, these changes will prove to be of the utmost significance--being on the wrong side of the world's only superpower could clearly have dire economic consequences.

So have George W Bush and his government, in their actions and deeds thus far, shown that they see the region as a vital political and economic partner? Or is Asia in danger of being on the "wrong side" of the global giant?

Economic reliance

Asia relies heavily on the US as a target for its products as well as a source of much needed investment. Many of the region's countries have America as their number one destination for exports, a fact underlined by Asia's sluggish growth in the face of the dragging US economy of recent years.

Bush's coming into power in 2001 in itself marked a shift in US-Asia relations. The move from a Democrat-led US (Bill Clinton) to a Republican government meant a change in relations in a broad sense, according to Research Institute for Asia and the Pacific (RIAP) executive director Professor Stephanie Fahey.

"Republicans tend to go softer on human rights issues, so it let some of the countries in the region off the hook as opposed to the Clinton years," she said. "The view of the Clinton administration was that it was strong economically and tough on human rights, but also not clear in their strategies towards the region and not really engaged with the region."

China's relations with the US, in particular, took a battering in the first year of the Bush presidency, thanks to incidents such as the spy plane drama of early 2001, where a US surveillance plane collided with a Chinese jet, killing the pilot.

"It appeared that the US was lining China up to be the next target or enemy along the same lines as Cold War type structures," Fahey said.

Attitude shift

Things changed for China and the rest of the region following the devastating terrorist attacks on New York's World Trade Centre on September 11, 2001. The US, feeling vulnerable and under siege, sought support from its friends and allies across the world.

What became clear in the aftermath of September 11 was that Washington now saw Asia in a different light. It seemed that the US particularly needed Asia, home to two of the largest Muslim populations in the world, on side for its coming global war on terror. With Asia also being the site of two possible global flashpoints--in the form of North Korea and the India/Pakistan stand-off--Washington shifted its stance and ramped up its involvement in the region.

China was no longer painted as a threat, but rather as an important partner in global security. Diplomatic relations were stepped up in Indonesia and Malaysia particularly, but in the region as a whole. Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamed's standing as an influential moderate in the Muslim world rose, with Mahathir even visiting Washington in May last year, his first visit since 1996.

Bush himself showed the importance he placed on the region by insisting on attending the APEC Leaders' Meeting in Shanghai, which were held just over a month after the September 11 attacks.

On the increase

Two years later and the levels of Asia/US engagement have definitely increased, with the countries that had most strongly supported the US and its global war on terror being the major winners.

Singapore, for example, has scored an expansive free trade deal with Washington--the first the US has signed with an Asian country. Bush rewarded Singapore, an ally in the US' war on Iraq, with a deal that gave the city state tariff free entry into US for its exports. The two countries had US$31 billion in commerce last year, making Singapore the largest US trading partner in South-East Asia.

Singapore is "a vital and steadfast friend in the fight against terror," Bush said at the official signing held in May this year. "And we share a belief in the power of free enterprise and free trade to improve lives."

For the Bush administration, the agreement is also about extending its goal of free trade to Asia and to the Muslim-majority nations that are Singapore's neighbours. "Winning over Muslim hearts and minds is very important," especially after the US wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, Singapore Trade Minister George Yeo said.

Australia has also seen economic flow-ons from its strong involvement in the Iraq war, with Canberra now working with US diplomats on securing a free trade deal of its own.

The Philippines, a long-term ally in the region for the US, has also gained from its staunch support of both the war on terror and the Iraq offensive. Bush has promised the Philippines greater access to US military aid. "We've agreed to launch a comprehensive review of Philippine security requirements and provide greater access to major equipment and supplies," Bush said in May during a visit to Washington by Philippine President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo.