Mori takes up baton, but polls to seal fate - Government Activity - International Pages - Brief Article

Business Asia, April 14, 2000

New Japanese Prime Minister Yoshiro Mori may have to give up the job almost before he has had time to get his feet under the desk.

Speculation is mounting that Mori will call an early election in hopes that voters, saddened by his predecessor's sudden illness, will turn to the ruling party and cement his own grip on power.

But some analysts say that unseemly haste could backfire and bring Mori's tenure at the top to an abrupt end.

Wary of just that outcome and fearing that Mori's popularity ratings prove as limp as his reputation for policy prowess, ruling party eiders may decide to wait until after a July Group of Eight (G8) summit on Japan's southern island of Okinawa.

The timing of the election for parliament's powerful Lower House, which must in any case be held by October, is unlikely to have a big impact on immediate policy decisions. Mori has pledged to pursue economic measures already set in motion by Keizo Obuchi, now in a coma after suffering a stroke.

But the outcome of the poll will decide not only Mori's own fate as Prime Minister, but the future of the current coalition led by the dominant Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) -- and thus whether Japan gains political stability or faces confusion.

"I think this election will have major significance," said Hiroshi Kuribayashi, a political analyst at Barclays Capital.

As Business Asia went to press, Mori was set to reappoint outgoing ministers as he turned to tackle problems ranging from a rumbling volcano and a fragile economy to talks with Russian President-elect Vladimir Putin later this month.

An LDP veteran seen as a lightweight on both domestic and diplomatic policy, Mori was backed as successor by key LDP factions and its main coalition partner, the New Komeito Party.

A survivor of countless intra-party feuds, the burly former rugby player has inherited from Obuchi a big but unpopular coalition linking the LDP, the Buddhist-backed New Komeito and the newly formed, small Conservative Party.

But Mori faced calls for an early Lower House election to validate his administration even before it was formed.