The Megawati Mystery - The newly elected presient of Indonesia, Magawati Soekarnoputri - Brief Article

Business Asia, August, 2001 by David Derosa

INDONESIA MAY not know what it does want in terms of a leader, but it certainly knew what it didn't want when it voted to oust President Abdurrahman Wahid. With Wahid's own party boycotting the election, the vote count went 591-0 to give Wahid the boot.

Parliament then turned to the question of succession. It unanimously appointed as President Megawati Soekarnoputri, who had served as Wahid's Vice President.

In her own way, Megawati is just as unlikely in the presidency as was Wahid. Megawati is the daughter of the infamous Sukarno, Indonesia's first President. Sukarno was ousted in 1966 and spent the next four years, until his death, under house arrest.

Before anyone gets too charged up about Megawati, remember that her father once declared himself President for Life. Nice to know that the new President comes from a family that deeply respected democracy.

And it is too bad the dead can't talk, for it would be interesting to hear what Sukarno would have had to say about his daughter's accession. My question to Sukarno would be "How come your daughter has hit the deck snoozing?". The country is in crisis from every dimension -- political, economic and social.

Paint dries faster than Megawati makes decisions. To be blunt, nobody thinks this lady is clued in. We could be wrong, of course -- and everyone of this opinion hopes they are proved wrong.

For example, Sidney Jones, Asia director for Human Rights Watch, in a guest editorial in the New York Times, politely referred to Megawati's "detachment". Jones cited as an example Megawati's choice of how to spend her time. Only days before her appointment to the presidency she went to see the movie "Shrek", the animated tale about a friendly ogre.

Within hours of Megawati's election, she received an endorsement from President George W Bush -- that sealed the deal.

But Wahid was still holed up in the presidential palace.

So Bush tossed him a courtesy: "We appreciate President Wahid's work the last two years in leading Indonesia through a democratic transition."

Maybe it is just a coincidence, but when Wahid finally left the palace, days later, it was to go to the airport for a flight to America. The story is, he is in the US for medical treatment.

Parliament removes Wahid, Bush congratulates Megawati, and Wahid heads for America. Where have we heard this before? When the Shah of Iran left his country it was his intent to come to America for medical treatment. So it was with Ferdinand Marcos, come to think of it. If there is a connection there, so be it -- a plane ticket and a hospital bed.

Now comes the critical question of what Megawati's accession says about the Indonesian military. For had the military obeyed Wahid, he might still be President with Indonesia in a state of martial law.

You could say that the military cast a possibly deciding vote to swap Megawati for Wahid. The military played a trump card in dumping Wahid. And it may pay off.

In previous times, the US military was on cordial terms with the Indonesian military. Of course, it was because the US saw President Suharto as a bulwark against the spread of communism in Asia.

But the communist threat is greatly reduced now that the Cold War is finished. Nonetheless, the military could have a crucial role to play in whether Megawati is a successful president. Maybe even a crucial role as to whether she stays president.

DAVID DEROSA(*)

(*) David DeRosa, president of DeRosa Research and Trading, is also an adjunct finance professor at Yale School of Management.