More Hurricans Ashore For 2001?

Sometimes just plain average can be a good thing, for instance, when describing this year's coming hurricane season. The forecast for the 2001 season, which runs June 1 through the end of November, is for an average year -- nine named tropical storms (9.3 is average), five reaching hurricane strength (5.7 is average) and two becoming intense (category 3, 4 or 5; average is 2.2), according to Dr. William Gray, atmospheric scientist at Colorado State University. This early forecast will be updated in June and August.

What isn't average, according to Gray's report, is that there is a 5-10% higher probability this year of a hurricane making landfall along the U.S. Atlantic coast. The probability for the East Coast is 43% (average is 31%); and the Gulf Coast is 36% (average is 30%); the entire U.S. coastline has a 63% landfall probability (average is 52%).

Another El Nino event, this time weaker, is expected to develop in Pacific waters this summer which suppresses Atlantic hurricanes. Gray's forecast last year was on the mark -- he predicted eight hurricanes, four intense, and there were eight with three intense; remarkably, no hurricanes came ashore in the U.S. last year.

Boats are extremely vulnerable to any type of large storm and to aid boaters Boat U.S. has a free guide to preparing, Hurricane Warning, available at BoatUS.com or by calling 800-283-2883.