El Nino returns; more hurricanes predicted - Boat U.S. Reports

Boat/US Magazine, May, 2002

Following a record-setting 2001 hurricane season in which, miraculously, not a single hurricane hit the U.S. coastline, there are no guarantees 2002 will prove so calm. Predictions for this season, which runs from June 1 through Nov. 30, call for above average activity and an 86% probability of a hurricane coming ashore along the East or Gulf coasts.

In a major climatic development, there has been strong signs of a return of El Nino, a warming every four to five years of the equatorial Pacific waters that spawns destructive weather patterns. By February, the water temperature in the area had increased four degrees and rainfall had increased. It has been almost four years since the last such event occurred.

For 2002, hurricane expert Dr. William Gray and his team at Colorado State University are predicting 13 named tropical storms and eight hurricanes, four of them intense. Averages over 1950-2000 are: 9.6 storms, six hurricanes and two intense hurricanes. Gray calculates a 58% probability of hurricane landfall along the East Coast in 2002 (average has been 31%) and a 43% probability of landfall for the Gulf Coast (average has been 30%). Gray also foresees the development of hurricanes coming earlier this season than last.

Last year broke a number of records for unusual hurricane behavior: it was the first season in which nine hurricanes formed after early September; the first season with three hurricanes in November as well as the highest November activity of all time; and the first time 19 consecutive Atlantic hurricanes formed without a U.S. landfall (going back to 1999's Irene). It's only the third time in 100 years that the U.S. has been spared a landfall for two straight seasons. The last time was 1981-82 and before that, 1930-31.

Equally bizarre in 2001 was the formation of tropical storm Olga, the 15th named storm, on Nov. 24, which weakened and then reformed into the ninth hurricane of the season in early December, well after hurricane season ended.

Boaters can get Hurricane Warning a free guide to preparing a boat for a hurricane or other storms, from BoatU.S. Marine Insurance. Go to BoatUS.com/freebies or call 800-283-2883.