All systems grow for Europe's track market: the European track market is one of the biggest and most important in the world. Andrew Roden analyses a new market study from SCI Verkehr, Germany, which forecasts significant growth

International Railway Journal, March, 2008 by Andrew Roden

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INVESTMENT in high-speed rail means Europe's track systems market is set to grow over the next five years, according to a new report by SCI Verkehr, but will continue to be dominated by the 'big five' countries of Germany, France, Spain, Italy, and Britain in terms of investment.

Despite the recent openings of high-speed lines in France, Spain, and Britain, conventional rail is set to remain by far the dominant sector of the industry (Figure 1), retaining its 93% share. Light rail is next largest with 4% and high-speed with 2%. Metros make up just 1% of the total track market.

However, within these figures, significant growth is forecast in all but conventional rail, with high-speed routes expanding by 45% in Western Europe and 605% in Eastern Europe (albeit from a very low base). A similar picture exists for metros, which will see growth of 13% in Western Europe and 6% in Eastern Europe. Light rail, however, is set to increase in size by just 1% in Western Europe, and remain static in Eastern Europe.

SCI estimates the size of the market for products and services in track systems at around 10.5 billion [euro] (Figure 2), a figure which it expects to remain largely unchanged until 2012. It is split almost equally between renewals, maintenance, and new development and upgrade projects. There will, says SCI, be some growth, but this is limited to just 3% for renewals, and nothing for maintenance. Upgrades are set to grow by 5% in Western Europe and 8% in Eastern Europe.

The track systems market for European countries in the Commonwealth of Independent States is set to fall from the present 80 million [euro] a year to just 50 million [euro].

When it comes to the market suppliers can actually access, the overall trend mirrors that of overall market growth, with the value set to rise from the present 940 million [euro] per year to 1.4 billion [euro] by 2012, with major growth predicted for Eastern and Western Europe.

For metro systems, the picture is rather different, with the market only rising by 10 million [euro] in Eastern Europe. More worrying is that SCI forecasts a fall in the size of the accessible markets for Western Europe from the present 210 million [euro] to just 160 million [euro]. The LRT market is set to fall hugely in Western Europe from the current 510 million [euro] to 350 million [euro], while Eastern Europe is set to grow again by 10 million [euro] to 50 million [euro].

Figure 1: Network length development (route-km)

Year              2007     2008     2009     2010     2011     2012

High-speed        6668     7616     8570     9634    10379    10644
Conventional   283,277  282,614  282,573  282,458  282,262  282,262
Metro             3260     3355     3431     3536     3585     3656
Light rail      11,835   12,085   12,417   12,667   12,772   12,889