California at a crossroads: with passenger numbers soaring and plans for a high-speed network rarely out of the headlines, California is spearheading the revival of intercity rail in the United States. Keith Barrow looks at how the state hopes to build on recent growth at a time of deepening economic uncertainty

International Railway Journal, April, 2008 by Keith Barrow

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WITH a population of 36.5 million and comparatively short distances between many key economic centres, California seems the ideal candidate to spearhead the revival of intercity passenger rail in the United States. Passengers travelling within the Golden State account for around one fifth of all Amtrak journeys, and ridership on the state's busiest intercity routes has increased by 60% in the last seven years.

Indeed, business appears to be brisk on train 524 from Oakland to Sacramento, but as I arrive at the California Department of Transportation (Caltrans) offices there's a stark reminder that the outlook for passenger rail in the United States is far from assured. Unveiling his 2009 fiscal budget, President George W Bush has allocated Amtrak $US 900 million in federal funding--a cut of $US 400 million from last year's level and enough to push Amtrak to the brink of bankruptcy. This is nothing new, the Bush administration having proposed exactly the same level of funding a year ago. Then Congress rejected the president's plans and Amtrak subsequently received $US 1.3 billion--a deal that will have to be brokered yet again by Amtrak's supporters.

The effects of such political cat-and mouse games resonate through the passenger rail network of the United States, and 6000km from Washington the squeeze on Amtrak is felt as strongly in California as it is in Connecticut. "The fact that Amtrak never knows what funding it will have more than 12 months in advance makes planning very difficult," says Mr Bill Bronte, chief of Caltrans Rail Divison. "Amtrak is already underfunded, which makes it difficult to expand services. The situation is of great concern, and I can't see it getting any better through the remainder of the upcoming budget year. There needs to be a dedicated federal source of capital funding to guarantee the future of passenger rail in this country."

Although federal funding is vital to Amtrak, California's intercity rail services are primarily funded from state sources, largely through a sales tax on fuel for road vehicles. Levels of state funding are determined by the Governor's Strategic Growth Plan, the Global Warming Solutions Act (which requires greenhouse gas emissions to be reduced to 1990 levels by 2020), and the California Transportation Plan 2025.

All of the above put great emphasis on increasing passenger rail use, and the Governor's Plan has called for a five-fold increase in infrastructure development. Over the next decade, $US 105 billion is required for infrastructure investment but California is grappling with a $US 14 billion fiscal deficit, and with the current economic downturn hitting the state particularly hard, funding for passenger rail investment may struggle to reach the desired level.

California has the option of diverting funds away from capital projects to cover operational costs in the event of a shortfall, although in Bronte's view this is far from satisfactory. "Since 2001, state support for Amtrak has barely increased, and fares have hardly risen, but the cost of fuel has almost tripled, labour costs are up and passenger numbers have risen considerably," explains Bronte. "We cannot go forward without an increase in support. We've run out of rabbits to pull out of the hat."

So far, the economic downturn has done little to impede the surge in passenger numbers. The Capitol Corridor from San Jose to Oakland, Sacramento and Auburn carried 1.49 million passengers last year, up 14% over 2006 and a 70% increase on 2000 levels. California's 10-year State Rail Plan suggests ridership on this route will increase by 90% to 2.76 million by 2018, which will be supported by a massive expansion of services. The 16 trains per day per direction between Oakland and Sacramento will be increased to 18, while services between San Jose and Oakland will be increased from seven to 16. The Sacramento--Auburn line will see 10 trains per day to Roseville, with four running through to Auburn.

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From 2014-15 one train will run through to Reno, Nevada, and this will increase to two trains per day by 2018. Caltrans is keen to introduce intercity services on this route as a means of relieve congestion on the 1-80 highway, and because of high passenger numbers on the existing bus service.

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A daily service will begin operating on the Sacramento--Redding line in 2015-16. This is currently California's second-busiest intercity bus route.

The Capitol Corridor is a busy freight route and the line is owned by Union Pacific (UP). As such, capacity on this line is becoming increasingly strained by rising freight volumes, and the surge in passenger numbers. Funding is currently being sought to provide additional rolling stock and add track capacity to allow for the increase in both freight and passenger traffic.

Another line to see significant growth in recent years is the Pacific Surfliner from San Diego to Los Angeles, Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo, which is the second busiest Amtrak route in the United States (after the Northeast Corridor). It carried 2.7 million passengers in 2007, up 1.9% over the previous year and 71.6% higher than in 2000. Passenger numbers on this line are expected to almost double by 2018. Caltrans wants to extend a daily service from San Luis Obispo to San Francisco by 2011 and add a second State train on this route by 2014. The goal is to increase the number of round trips on the core San Diego--Los Angeles section from 11 today to 13 by 2014.