WAP Race Not Won Yet Says IDC

Computergram International, Sept 1, 1999

The Wireless Application Protocol (WAP) may already be a de facto internet format and delivery standard, but its ultimate triumph as the mobile content standard of choice is still not an open and shut case, according to new research from International Data Corp's European research group. "WAP Services in Europe: the WWW Goes MMMobile" said that there are still a number of factors which may inhibit WAP uptake between now and 2001.

IDC's chief concerns about WAP center on the potential for existing alternatives, such as the Short Message Service (SMS) standard, to muddy competitive waters at a critical time, plus a raft of other issues connected with future application and marketing uncertainties.

SMS, says IDC's European mobile market analyst, Tim Sheedy, "is both an inhibitor and an enabler for WAP." As an enabler SMS is already acting to educate the market about the benefits of mobile date communications. However, SMS' success may also pose a competitive threat to WAP. According to Sheedy, SMS serves many of the functions of WAP, and is becoming increasingly popular among, mobile users, application developers and service operators, many of whom may be slow to see the value of migrating early to WAP until it can demonstrate a truly compelling reason for doing so.

WAP's tight association with not naturally mobile friendly internet content ought to also benefit from emerging higher speed mobile data services, such as GPRS (General Packet Radio Service). But even these could work against WAP if, as Sheedy speculates, they act to increase the propensity for users to connect laptop computers to the internet via wireless modems.

GPRS ought at least to help some users to make up their mind to buy a new handset. There are virtually no WAP compatible phones in use today, although several models have recently become available, such as Nokia's 7110, and Motorola has said that within the year, all its phones will be WAP phones. Unless others follow Motorola's lead, and turn WAP into an inevitable component of any new phone, consumers may stick to buying phones on their size and looks, rather than their functionality, discouraging application developers from targeting WAP and slowing the whole migration process.

Already, Sheedy points out, the industry consensus among phone makers is that 50% of phones will be WAP phones by 2003. Which is a lot, if one considers that the same manufacturers think there will then be one billion mobile phones in circulation, but also a disappointment if, as some manufacturers also claim, the future of mobile is as the chief access path to the internet.