Diesels could take 5-25% of vehicle market by 2010: SAE World Congress survey

Diesel Fuel News, June 23, 2003 by Jack Peckham

A survey of nearly 200 attendees at the Society of Automotive Engineers (SAB) WORLD CONGRESS earlier this year found that over 80% believe diesels probably will take between 525% of the vehicle market by 2010, a big jump if compared to relatively paltry diesel share of the North American market today.

The survey, conducted by automotive market researcher Tier One Research for automotive metal/plastic parts supplier Oberg Industries, didn't ask respondents to separate light-duty from heavy-duty market share.

Light-duty diesels are a tiny (less than 1%) share of U.S. vehicle market today, but already over 40% of European vehicle sales. The survey indicates European diesel share would continue to be much stronger than North American diesel share by 2010. (Cont. p1?)

Taking the mean response, projected technology penetration rates for diesel indicate about an 18% diesel share for North America by 2010, Oberg Industries spokesman John Becker explains.

However, survey respondents were asked to pick among ranges, rather than absolute numbers. Over 80% indicated that diesels likely will take a 5-25% share, so many of the respondents might have believed that diesels would fall in the lower end of the range rather than the mathematical 18% mean of all responses, he said.

Less than 10% of respondents said diesels would gain more than 25% share, and 21% of respondents said diesels would achieve lessthan-5% share by 2010.

Critical to possible growth of diesel share is the coming debut of ultra-low sulfur diesel (ULSD), respondents said, but this must be paired with cost-effective diesel emissions controls. Also aiding diesel's potential is the emergence of high-performance diesel technology in Europe.

However, reducing cost levels for new technologies "generally requires high-volume production," which for diesel is typical of Europe, but not (yet) North America.

Today, hitting ultra-clean emissions standards mean "expensive treatment systems" that make diesels less cost-competitive to gasoline engines, the respondents said. Hence the higher fuel efficiency of diesels is "offset by higher costs for vehicles and for fuel itself," the respondents said.

Perceptions that diesel is a "trucker fuel" rather than for light vehicles also could hinder diesel market penetration, they said.

Relatively modest 2010 penetration increases seen for diesels, hybrids and fuel cells reflects industry reluctance to make "bet the company" investments in new technologies "until the consumer, regulatory and technical requirements are more certain," according to the survey report. "Respondents specifically cited alternative propulsion systems such as diesel engines, hybrid electric vehicles or fuel cells as examples."

Some 40% of respondents see hybrids as capturing less than 5% of the vehicle market by 2010, with another 40% seeing hybrids taking between 5-25%.

Survey respondents overwhelmingly agree fuel cells will be less than 5% of the market by 2010.

Other fuel-efficiency-boosting technologies such as continuously variable transmission and 42-volt electrical are seen by a bare majority as grabbing a 5-25% share by 2010; another 40% see electrically assisted steering grabbing a similar share.