U.S. Diesel sales will hit 2.4 million in 2010, 2006 to mark 'big awakening

Diesel Fuel News, Nov 11, 2002 by Jack Peckham

Once North Americans get a chance to drive high-tech, ultra-clean diesel cars and SUVs debuting later this decade, they're likely to become as diesel-crazy as Europeans, according to a new report by Schmidt's Automotive Industry Data (AID).

This transformation will be gradual, starting with about 50,000 diesel cars plus around 500,000 diesel light trucks and sport-utility vehicles (SUVs) in 2006, the report says.

In the report, Diesel Car Prospects to 2008 (see: http://www.eagleAID.com), the European-based auto industry analyst claims that 2006 will mark the "big awakening" for diesels in North America.

Diesel SUVs by themselves will represent about 117,600 units in 2006, roughly four times the sales level of VW's diesel cars in the U.S. this year, the report says.

VW is the sole new-car diesel seller in the U.S. today, although the report claims that Mercedes 4 (DaimlerChrysler) and BMW are likely to bring diesel cars or SUVs back to the U.S. in 2004.

By 2010, diesels will represent one-third of U.S. SUV new-car sales, or about 1.2 million vehicles, the report claims. In that year, total diesel SUV and light-truck sales will top 2 million units, along with about 400,000 diesel cars, the report says.

"If not in every drive, as is already the case in much of Europe today, by 2010 U.S. diesel car penetration -- passenger cars and light trucks -- will have reached double-digits," the report claims.

Superior torque and fuel economy are only part of the diesel equation, while the emergence of exhaust aftertreatment technology capable of hitting U.S. EPA's super-strict "Tier 2" emissions levels increasingly seems likely, the report claims.

"Eco-consciousness" over global warming is also starting to penetrate some segments of U.S. automotive buyers.

Vehicles with diesel particulate filters (DPFs) emit none of the "black carbon" that some scientists claim can be linked to global warming (see Diesel Fuel News 9/16/02, p5). Diesels also emit far fewer [CO.sub.2] emissions than gasoline cars and diesel-electric hybrids are much superior to gasoline-electric hybrids on fuel economy.

"It will be a long time before the majority of North American buyers can be persuaded or cajoled into more environmentally friendly cars," the report says. "But after exposure to state-of-the-art German/French diesel engine technology, ably assisted by some novel Toyota-inspired exhaust filter wizardry, at least a small but well-informed minority will realize that diesels really are where the clever money is."