China likely to adopt ULSD by 2010

Diesel Fuel News, Nov 24, 2003 by Jack Peckham

Washington, DC -- China's astonishing growth in motor vehicle production and sales, coupled with jaw-dropping foreign investment and coincident pollution problems likely will provoke adoption of Euro-4 vehicle emissions limits and (possibly) a 50-ppm sulfur ULSD by 2010.

That's what Automotive Resources Asia executive director Tim Dunne told Diesel Technology Forum's annual "Issues" conference here.

"Euro-4 standards for 2010 should be announced by late 2003 or early 2004," Dunne revealed in a speech about an industry-backed "Green Diesel Initiative" (GDI). Major diesel engine and vehicle makers are backing the China GDI push to enable greater dieselization. VW and Fiat are pioneering the Chinese diesel car market.

While "there are no written regulations or plans for Euro-4 fuel yet, the Chinese government is expected to announce specific regulations for Euro-3 and Euro-4 in 2004," he said.

"Green Diesel Initiative" member companies include AVL, Bosch, Cummins, DaimlerChrysler, DCEC, Honeywell, Isuzu, Scania, Valvoline and Volvo Truck.

Asked for comment, former U.S. EPA mobile sources director Mike Walsh (now a private consultant who spends a lot of time in Asia) told us that as of now, "all that has been decided so far is Euro-2 in 2003/4. Beijing is close to adopting Euro-3, including almost-Euro-3 fuels for 2005, but does not yet have approval of the State Council ...

"Beyond that, everything is in play but nothing is decided. Under business as usual, I think Euro-3 nationally in 2008 has been floated to interested parties. But there is a great deal of pressure in light of the serious air pollution problems and the extremely rapid growth in the vehicle population to accelrate the process or to leapfrog directly to Euro-4."