Forecast shows continued strong diesel growth

Diesel Fuel News, Feb 4, 2002 by Jack Peckham

Europe will continue to dominate the world share of diesel light-vehicle sales through 2020, but growth opportunities remain for North America thanks to high-tech advances coming from overseas.

That's the view from a study by Arthur D. Little and DRI-WEFA consultants, which challenge the notion that fuel cells will rapidly replace the internal combustion engine.

The "baseline" forecast to 2020 indicates diesels capturing 24% of the world's major auto markets (Japan, Europe, North America), compared to 51% for gasoline spark-ignited, 10% for gasoline direct-injection, and 13% "advanced, downsized" spark-ignited.

Assuming diesels rise to the very tough challenges of advanced emissions control, this technology could make a significant dent in North American light vehicle markets, study co-author Philip Gott told us.

The major North American automakers also could take advantage of "advanced diesel technology either from Europe or Asia, if the U.S. adopts much stricter fuel economy standards," added study co-author J.R. Linna.

The study analyzed other potential scenarios where ultra-strict emissions regulations virtually outlaw diesels in some places. But gasoline engines also could feel similar pressure with even more strict standards on ultra-fine particulate emissions, Gott said.

"Remember that not only the diesel but also the gasoline engine was written off," as when California first proposed what seemed to be impossibly-tough "ULEV" standards years ago, Linna pointed out.

Since then, engine and exhaust treatment technologies have overcome many tough challenges. That's why, "in our baseline case, there's greater than a 50% chance that diesels will meet future emissions standards, but it won't be easy," he said.

Rather than fuel cells, the drive-train technology changes that are more likely to see big market penetration are micro-hybrids (automatic stop-start), mild-hybrids (minor electric power) and full hybrids (roughly equal electric and conventional power).

The emergence of 42-volt electric systems means that close to 60% of cars in 2020 will be micro-hybrids, allowing the combustion engine to shut down whenever the driver is idling or takes the foot off the fuel pedal.

Super-fast, powerful ultracapacitor technology allows instantaneous restart, giving motorists reliable, smooth, noiseless stop/starts for better fuel economy at an attractive cost, especially when combined with other customer conveniences of 42-volt power, they said.