Ricardo sees diesel surge accelerating in Europe

Diesel Fuel News, April 15, 2002 by Jack Peckham

Automotive engineering consultancy Ricardo finds that outstanding performance advances in diesel technology in recent years explain a huge and growing surge in European vehicle dieselization.

European diesel car sales last year topped 5.33 million units, an all-time record. That was up 12% over the previous record in 2002.

"At this rate, Ricardo estimates that [European] diesel car sales will reach a market penetration in excess of 40% in 2002 and 50% potentially by 2005," the company found.

It's not just the superior fuel economy of diesels that's driving the massive trend, according Ricardo's "Diesel Passenger Car & Light Commercial Vehicle Markets in Western Europe" report.

Rather, it's common rail, variable-geometry turbo and other engineering breakthroughs helping motorists to choose high-performance diesel over gasoline, the company finds.

Another key factor: automaker EU [CO.sub.2] emissions targets of 140g/km by 2008.

France and Germany continue to set the diesel pace, although the UK saw a 39% jump in diesel sales last year, reversing six years of gasoline growth.

"Business car drivers trying to reduce [CO.sub.2] levels in the run-up to the new [UK] emissions-based company car tax, starting April 2002, helped fuel last year's rapid rise of diesel sales" in the UK, Ricardo found. Another factor was a new [CO.sub.2]-based road tax on vehicles registered since March 1, 2001.

In Italy, the removal of punitive anti-diesel tax measures since 1995 explains why diesels now capture 37% of new-car sales there. Spain meanwhile continues to score on diesels, representing over half of new-car sales.

France saw a whopping 21% increase in diesel car sales last year, with a resulting 56% sales share. German diesels also rose by 12.6%, to 35% of car sales.

Belgium and Luxembourg diesel sales rates are now over 62%, and Austria continues as Europe's leader with a 65.7% diesel sales share, thanks to a fuel tax rate tied to fuel economy/[CO.sub.2] policies.

Because of this huge demand surge, "it is expected that within five years manufacturers will be able to offer customers the same number of diesel [model] options as gasoline variants for each vehicle, further enhancing the' desirability of the diesel car," Ricardo's study found.

Europe's commitment to automotive [CO.sub.2] limits is a big boost for diesel-electric hybrids, too.

A Ricardo/Valeo technology joint-venture (see Diesel Fuel News 10/15/01, p6) aims to allow automakers to use downsized, 1.2-liter diesel engines (62-kW, 83 bhp) in combination with a small electric machine.

This so-called "I-MoGen" (intelligent motor generator) technology aims to enable an automaker fuel economy target of four liters of fuel per 100 kilometers traveled.

"The combination of the downsized diesel engine together with the low speed torque boost of its electrical machine will help the I-MoGen achieve a performance feel similar to existing 2-liter turbo diesel cars, but with the benefit of even lower fuel consumption and [CO.sub.2] emissions," Ricardo says.

(For more info: InfoServices@ricardo.com)

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