Still auditioning: but wireless data is close to being a prime-time supply chain tool

Frontline Solutions, June, 2003 by Tom Kevan

Is it time for downloadable wireless data in handsets to take center stage as a key technology used by sales and field force workers who need to manage information in the supply chain? Not yet, but soon.

"The pieces are there and ready to go [but] they have to be stitched together," says John Jackson, analyst with the Yankee Group, Boston, Mass. "It's going to be some time yet before the market matures."

One of the reasons: it's still an immature and fragmented market--even the applications environment continues to evolve and there's a sufficient installed base of terminals (or handsets) capable of handling downloadable content. Verizon Wireless, Bedminster, N.J., for example, expects to have 8 million installed Brew-capable terminals in the hands of users by the end of 2003.

Still, says the Yankee Group in its recent report, Finding a Clear Path to Wireless Data Revenue with Downloadable Applications, "critical pieces of the wireless data value chain" continue to fall into place as operators complete the rollout of next-generation packet switched networks.

And, despite the market's immature and fragmented nature, "wireless applications and services delivery platforms have gained significant momentum" as companies look for new ways to better access specific corporate data or applications, send and receive data from field force or sales force automation, do scheduling and calendars and check e-mail--the four most critical functions business wants to address with this technology, according to the Yankee Group report.

For example, shipping giant FedEx Corp., Memphis, Tenn., has gained greater tracking visibility through the use of wireless hand-held computers designed by Motorola Inc., Austin, Texas, that uses Microsoft CE and run on the Global Packet Radio System (GPRS) network operated by AT&T Wireless, Redmond, Wash. FedEx also plans to incorporate this into its field force operations by year end.

But, at the same time, says Jackson, "it will be awhile" before companies really start to reap the full benefits in the supply chain from wireless packet data networks.

Why? There is significant fragmentation in the platforms because of the existence of different devices and application types, the issue of portability has to be resolved, and a lot of the platforms are still evolving.

For instance, the Mobile Information Device Profile 2.0 of the J2ME wireless platform specification will not be released by the Java Community Process (JCP) standards body until sometime next quarter. And the same is true for QUALCOMM's BREW wireless platform (see sidebar). It will be "12 to 18 months" before you see enterprises really leveraging this, says Jackson.

In addition, the Yankee report suggests that mobile operators--who have committed more than $150 billion toward 2.5G and 3G spectrum license acquisitions and network equipment expenditures--must now couple investments in faster IP-based networks with further investments to develop moderately priced handsets, associated platform technologies and practical, engaging enterprise-oriented applications.

As a result, analysts don't expect wideband code division multiple access (CDMA)--which is critical to high data rate wireless applications--to take hold in North America before 2007.

To be sure, there will be niche deployments of technologies like 1x EVDO, which is a CDMA migration path technology, says Jackson. "But the whole Global System for Mobile Communications (GSM) evolution path to wideband CDMA will be forestalled" because it would require an expensive network upgrade and a spectrum that is not yet available.

Besides, there's just not enough demand since most supply chain management applications don't require the transmission of massive files and current systems are more than adequate to enable companies to implement field-reporting solutions over the next 12 to 18 months.

Yankee adds that the hardware that is emerging in conjunction with these wireless networks--smartphone products such as the Handspring Treo, Nokia Communicator, and Orange SPV--are a significant step forward in data capabilities. But there has been limited adoption--except among technology enthusiasts and a small number of high-value mobile workers--because of high price points, network hiccups, and general market immaturity.

At the same time, Yankee cautions those looking to optimize their supply chain with this wireless technology not to wait until the technology and the market evolve. "If you don't commit now, you may never commit," says Jackson, because the technology will always be evolving.

RELATED ARTICLE: What platform is best?

Two noteworthy platforms--Sun's J2ME and QUALCOMM's BREW--have emerged as the best options for distributing applications on the next-generation of mid-tier handsets. "Operators that have committed to delivering BREW and J2ME already cover about one third of global subscribers," says the Yankee Group, Boston.

But enterprises may not have to choose between these two platforms. San Diego-based QUALCOMM Inc.--which invented and owns BREW--intends to release a new generation of chipsets that supports Java running on BREW. And in April, esmertec ag, Dana Point, Calif., which acquired the Java Virtual Machine from Fremont, Calif.-based Insignia Solutions, came out with a product called Mobile Foundation that runs Java on BREW.