Comcast's Telephony Pullback?

Cable World,  March 10, 2003  

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Byline: JONATHAN BLUM, KAGAN

While it's too soon to formally ratchet down our telephony projections, it's not too early to get a sense of the effect of Comcast's new guidance. Assuming the company actually loses the 140,000 telephony subs it said it might for 2003, our pro forma estimate shows there would be 4 million fewer subs by 2012. However, that future is far from preordained. Comcast is notoriously conservative with its guidance. Its telephony subs grew from 1.361 million in Q3 '02 to 1.438 million in Q4 '02. Considering the success in telephony of other MSOs like Cox, it's reasonable to wonder if Comcast's subs will actually drop in the coming months. The fact remains that telephony technology will only get easier to deploy. Therefore, we are keeping our bullish estimates intact...at least for now.

For complete telephony projections, including estimates from other MSOs, see "Cable TV Investor" at www.kagan.com.

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