Move Churn

Cable World, July 15, 2002

Byline: JONATHAN BLUM, ANALYST, KAGAN WORLD MEDIA

One often overlooked factor affecting churn is how cable customers move from one home to another. Based on U.S. Census data, just over 16% of U.S. citizens move every year, with over half staying within the same county and a little over 75% staying in the same state. That means that a large MSO often disconnects a sub only to get him back at another place in its same system, thereby losing no revenue and lowering overall true churn. The effect can be profound. Using 2001 estimates, Kagan found that the 21 million gross service disconnects for the year fell to only 12.4 million actual lost customers once the 8.9 million locally relocated subs are backed out. Assuming an overall industry rate of 30%, the resulting churn rate for basic cable stabilizes under 20%.