And you thought 2003 was going to be just another boring year?

Cable World,  Jan 13, 2003  

• E-mail
• Print
• Link

Byline: MIKE LUFTMAN

Ah, January, the month when we confront holiday hangovers of all kinds, and when humble scribes are asked by their editors to play the pundit and make predictions for the coming year. Well, here goes, but first a cautionary note about predictions: Back in the days of yellow journalism, newspaper tycoon William Randolph Hearst urgently telegrammed a noted astronomer, "Is there life on Mars? Wire 1,000-word article immediately." All too quickly came the reply: the words "Nobody knows," repeated 500 times. So be forewarned and take everything that follows with several grains of salt.

*

Let's start with an easy one: Murdoch and Malone form a tag team and get DirecTV. (This one is so obvious it almost doesn't qualify as a prediction, but cut me some slack.) Government approval is perfunctory and swift. The deal closes before year-end.

*

The Sopranos at last ends, with most plot lines finally resolved. Tony retires as the family's boss and is elected mayor of Hackensack; Paulie declines to accept the top mob spot, revealing that he's a woman trapped in a man's body and is planning sex-change surgery. The family agrees but stipulates Paulie can no longer be known as "Walnuts."

*

Further south, the heat rises in Washington. The good news is the FCC removes all ownership caps, as Messrs. Kimmelman and Schwartzman rant that it will end civilization as we know it. But bipartisan pressure to "do something" about higher cable prices (up 6.3% last year) begins to rise again, a sure sign that elections are approaching. It's mostly political posturing (Sen. McCain excepted) but will require delicate handling by the industry. Things don't come to a boil until 2004, as national politics heat up.

*

With the Trent Lott interview grabbing high ratings for BET, the net offers the senator his own talk show. Trent says "yes," but only if he also gets to be a VJ, and the show is called Rap Master TL's Hip-Hop Caucus. BET especially likes Lott's idea for a rap point/counterpoint between Jesse Jackson and Strom Thurmond.

*

In other programming news, Mike Tyson continues his role as pay-per-view punching bag, losing to the unknown Clifford Etienne. The take is dismally low, leaving the industry searching desperately for a new boxing villain. Iron Mike retires to start a fast-food chain featuring items like ear-shaped chicken tenders.

*

Like the proverbial old soldier, the case against media goddess Martha Stewart just fades away. Federal prosecutors are almost as upset as the joke writers at Saturday Night Live.

*

Also fading away are reality TV shows. The final nail in the coffin: the ratings failure of ABC's Who Wants to Marry the Leader of a Small Third-World Country, hosted by Manuel Noriega using a remote feed from Club Fed.

*

In technology news, predictions that 2003 will be the year of 3G turn out to be wrong. It's one more bit of proof of the maxim that all technology predictions are always wrong. In fact, like 2002, the coming year is again the year of VOD. It's also the year when HDTV goes mass market, as more programming becomes available and prices reach affordable levels.

*

Just as hostilities are about to begin, the Second Iraq War is averted when Saddam Hussein agrees to step down to become the CEO of the Al Jazeera satellite news unit and launches the new Axis of Evil Network. Saddam's gambit is funded by News Corp. and combines programming from Iraq, Iran and North Korea. As a result, cable stocks (along with the rest of the market) get out of the doghouse. This, in turn, makes possible an IPO of Time Warner Cable by summer, boosting all cable stocks (note: this prediction is based on absolutely no insider information).

*

After being chased from the podium of the AOL Time Warner annual meeting by irate shareholders bearing torches and pitchforks, Steve Case resigns as chairman of the company (note: see above note).

If more than half of these predictions come true, I will happily eat a reprint of this column. Happy New Year!

Mike Luftman is an adviser to Time Warner Cable. He was vice president of corporate communications for that company and held similar positions at American Television and Communications and Time Inc., the world's largest magazine company. He is also a consultant to companies in the cable and communications sectors. He currently resides in Rye, N.Y., and may be reached at mike.luftman@twcable.com.

COPYRIGHT 2003 Access Intelligence, LLC
COPYRIGHT 2008 Gale, Cengage Learning