Cable's Crystal Ball

Cable World, Feb 7, 2000 by Mike Reynolds

Accentuating the positive

January was a tough month for cable with the Nielsen's. The average primetime ratings for the medium was flat at a 26.3 (actually there was a slight uptick as January 1999 produced a 26.2), while the seven broadcast networks posted a 3% gain in their weighted total to a 35.7.

Something to do with a little show called Millionaire and a football game in Atlanta, I think.

Moreover, of the 39 networks gauged by Nielsen, only 12 posted primetime gains, while a like number suffered erosion from the prior year and the balance was flat.

In light of this sluggish start, and with Regis Philbin fever showing no signs of abating, and the Summer Olympics and the Presidential election forthcoming, this inquiring mind wants to know: What are cable's prospects for the balance of 2000?

It's probably not the double-digit ratings gains cable notched during the 1996-98 period, but maybe not that far off the 8% ratings bump the industry achieved in 1999 to hear two cable research mavens tell.

Tim Brooks, SVP-research at Lifetime, and Bob Sieber, VP-audience development at Turner, expect cable to pick up its Nielsen pace substantially this year. Indeed, the former forecasts a 4%-6% average ratings gain in primetime during this year, while Sieber projects a 7% increase.

Sieber notes that while cable was flat for January overall the medium already resurged over the final week notching a 5% advance to a 26.4. "We saw some growth even with the Super Bowl. Cable will start to trend upward again, even during the February sweep," he said.

While both offered kudos to ABC for Millionaire, neither felt that Regis' reach would hurt cable over the long haul, and the show's impact would be greater on the Alphabet's broadcast brethren. To that end, Sieber points out that CBS/FOX/NBC collectively saw their ratings fall by 12% in January.

As for the Millionaire wannabes, Brooks maintains that their runs will be evanescent.

Relative to the Summer Olympics from Sydney, Australia airing on NBC (and cable cousins MSNBC and CNBC) this fall, the broadcast networks are in a bit of sticky wicket, as they are loathe to launch their new seasons against the Games. Brooks believes "cable will be able to capitalize" on any delay to broadcast's debut while Sieber avers that "any viewer confusion to broadcast scheduling will help us."

As for my Nielsen predictions, the crystal ball remains somewhat murky. It doesn't appear there will be a final answer any time soon to the question of when Millionaire will crest. Cable news channels figure to benefit from the post-Monica doldrums as the nation turns its collective eye toward the Presidential race.

The Olympics, however, poses both an opportunity and challenge for the industry. Cable would be well served to extend their original offerings for another month. That said, more programming costs will be incurred and consumer appetites might be whetted for future seasons.

Is it a gamble worth taking? I believe it is, but it's not my money or business paradigm that would be altered. We'll be watching, come fall.