Further up the food chain - Brief Article

Eurofood, April 26, 2001

WHAT AGRICULTURE FOR 2020?

Scientists and other experts from all over the world convened at the John Innes Centre at Norwich in the UK last week to debate the ways forward for global agriculture in 2020. The inherent challenges are that the population is set to increase sharply, possibly by an extra two billion people by 2020, and that most of this increase will be in the developing world -- particularly in the cities of the developing world, calling into question the viability of `local' agricultural solutions. Meanwhile the average annual improvement in crop yields has been shrinking.

At the extremes of the debate are the factions which one speaker referred to as the "organic mystics versus the gene jockeys." Scientists are in general highly sceptical of the ability of organic agriculture to feed the world, as many environmental organisations contend is necessary to ensure `sustainability', a term which appears to lack a generally-accepted definition. Some speakers did however highlight a lack of research spending on organic agriculture, pointing out, for example, that modern short-strawed and open-canopied cereal varieties are less able to withstand weed competition when farmed organically.

Scientists have the ability to improve yields but the pace of technological change has been such that it has run ahead of the ability of populations to understand and accept it. Developed country governments and multinational companies need to give more consideration to cultural and national differences in moving GMOs (genetically modified organisms) across frontiers, although transgenic varieties should be assessed on a case-by-case basis and not treated as a single category, as is the case at the moment. On the other hand many of the developing country speakers at the conference were looking to transgenic varieties to raise productivity and improve incomes.

Speakers warned against complacency in the west over its own food security, particularly in the context of climate change. While the shift in policy support towards more environmental objectives was welcomed, the trend should not be overdone. Food security must always be the priority.

FOOT AND MOUTH DISEASE TAILING OFF

Although the UK's livestock industry has suffered immense hardship as a result of the foot and mouth disease outbreak, it is at least clear that the epidemic is now tailing off. Although it could be some months before it is finally eradicated, the total number of cases should be around 2 000 and not the 4 000 cases and more which were feared when the epidemic reached its peak in late March.

If the final total were to reach 2 000, then it is likely on the basis of statistics to date that almost 3 million animals will be slaughtered, including 2.26m sheep, 550 000 cattle and 163 000 pigs.

The cattle total could include 115 000 dairy cows. At an assumed average yield of 6 000 litres a cow, then around 693 million litres, or 4.75% of UK milk production capacity would have been lost. Dairy cow and heifer prices are therefore certain to rise and it will provide a challenge for milk producers in clear areas to feed more concentrates and retain cows for longer to ensure that the UK's milk quota is filled.